In form football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns fresh off another 2-0 weekend to share his favourite fancies for the weekend ahead with two plays from Scotland and Spain this weekend.
DONS TO DELIVER AT PITTODRIE
Aberdeen have made an eye-catching recovery since Jim Goodwin’s sacking in late January.
The Dons were enduring a disastrous campaign that included an embarrassing Scottish Cup exit against sixth-tier outfit Darvel, with the Goodwin era culminating in a shocking 6-0 shellacking at Hibs.
Barry Robson stepped into the breach and has overseen an almost instant turnaround.
Taking charge on an interim basis, the former Scotland midfielder has been given the gig until the end of the season following a fine run of form that’s seen the Dandies collect W5-D0-L1 in their past six outings – the only reverse arriving against runaway leaders Celtic.
Aberdeen have kept four clean sheets in that six-game sample, and whilst a red card went in their favour during a hard-fought 1-0 success at St Johnstone last weekend.
The Reds have won four on the spin to move just a point off third-placed Hearts.
With the league gearing up for their traditional end-of-season-split, Aberdeen are an appealing 1.95 to extend their impressive streak by overcoming lowly Kilmarnock at Pittodrie on Saturday.
The Dons have delivered top honours in each of their past three on home soil under Robson and have also proven expert operators here this term.
Aberdeen have posted W10-D1-L2 when welcoming Premiership opposition (excluding the Old Firm).
Only Celtic and Rangers have won more home fixtures, scored more home goals, or earned more home points than the Dandies, and it’s backed up by the underlying metrics – the Reds rank third on home Expected Goals (xP) and Expected Points (xP).
That should stand Robson’s group in good stead against a Kilmarnock side that have been nothing short of abject on their travels.
Killie have returned W0-D2-L13 on the road, scoring just six away goals in nearly 23 hours of football, failing to score in 10 of 15 and conceding an eye-watering 32 strikes.
The visitors average just 0.36 xG from open play on their travels.
Derek McInnes has had his Kilmarnock side training on grass this week to try and arrest their away-day blues this weekend, but I’m happy to back the hosts here at the prices.
Aberdeen have won each of their last four home league encounters with Killie and just appear too big to ignore at close to evens considering the overwhelming data in their favour.
Getafe not to be overlooked at the Anoeta
With 11 rounds of action still to play, the battle to survive in La Liga looks set to go the distance, with only seven points separating 11th-placed Girona from 19th-ranked Almeria.
Getafe sits in the middle of those nine sides, three points above the dreaded drop-zone.
However, Quique Sanchez Flores’ outfit are starting to move in the right direction following a difficult January. Los Azulones’ resurgent form (W3-D4-L1) included a well-earned goalless draw at Athletic last weekend, a feat they’re well capable of repeating again this weekend.
The capital club gave zero Big Chances away at San Mames and restricted Athletic to under 1.00 Expected Goal (xG) in another very impressive defensive display.
Heading back to the Basque Country on Saturday, a similar outcome could well be on the cards, with Real Sociedad stuttering following an exceptional first half of the campaign.
La Real’s grip on the top-four has loosened since mid-January, with the San Sebastian club taking top honours only twice in nine now – a late success at struggling Espanyol, as well as overcoming no-hopers Elche.
During that sample, lowly Valladolid won at Anoeta, relegation-threatened Cadiz took a point here, as have Celta Vigo.
Sociedad have fired blanks in five of their past nine and failed to win over half of their home La Liga fixtures, so Getafe should have little to fear about their trip north.
The visitors from the south of Madrid haven’t been beaten by more than a solitary strike since September, and they’ve pinched a point at Atletico Madrid, as well as Athletic, this calendar year.
Los Azulones are trending as a top-eight team over their most recent eight encounters and are artists at keeping things tight, as well as organisation, intimidation and grinding out results.
I’m therefore happy to back Getafe with a +1 start on the Asian Handicap line at 1.68, knowing we’ll get our stake back should Sociedad seal a narrow home success.
Recommended Bets
- Aberdeen -0.5 in Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock – 1 unit @ 1.93
- Getafe +1.0 in Real Sociedad vs Getafe – 1 unit @ 1.68
Subscribe to the Matchbook Betting Podcast here
Subscribe to the Matchbook YouTube channel here
