Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share his favourite fancies from the weekend with a pair of goal plays from the Netherlands and Turkey this weekend.
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SATURDAY NIGHT ENTERTAINMENT IN THE EREDIVISIE
The Eredivisie is averaging 3.30 goals per-game this season with 69% of matches featuring Over 2.5 Goals and 46% of fixtures producing four strikes or more. It’s therefore rare to find opportunities to support Over 2.5 Goals at palatable prices.
However, the market is offering an attractive 1.75 on Over 2.5 Goals when mid-table pair Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam cross swords on Saturday evening
That’s despite Heracles being one of the standout stars of the Dutch top-flight for goals-based wagers.
The Almelo outfit have provided profit in this market in 10 of their opening 11 Eredivisie games, nine of which also crossed the Over 3.5 barrier.
Nine of those contests also paid-out for Both Teams To Score backers with John Lammers’ side recording a solitary clean sheet this season – the only match in which they failed to score themselves came versus PSV.
Heracles have notched twice or more in four of their six outings at their Erve Asito base, whilst their last seven encounters across all venues have ended 2-1, 0-4, 2-2, 0-3, 0-6, 1-4, 5-0.
HAFC are a terrifically erratic team to follow with matches averaging an enormous 4.00 goals per-game, as well as Expected Goals (xG) average that comes close to 3.60 xG.
Sparta certainly aren’t as volatile as their hosts, but the Rotterdam group have managed to cover the required Over 2.5 Goals line in eight of their 13 dates thus far with the same hit-rate occurring for BTTS backers.
Meanwhile, De Kasteelheren have delivered both the Over 2.5 and Both Teams To Score bounty in four of six games as guests.
Interestingly, two of Sparta’s three clean sheets arrived when welcoming bottom-three opposition, and the three games in which Jeroen Rijsdijk’s group failed to score themselves all came against top-five teams.
Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS has therefore paid-out in all six of Sparta’s showdowns against fellow middle-third opposition.
Recommended Bet: OVER 2.5 GOALS Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam – 1 unit @ 1.75
TURKISH DELIGHT IN DEMIRSPOR
Adana Demirspor received plenty of plaudits in the Turkish Super Lig for securing a fourth-placed finish last season, the club’s highest ever placement in the top-flight.
The Blue Lightning were heavily dependent on their home form during 2022/23 with Patrick Kluivert’s crew picking up top honours in 12 of their 18 New Adana Stadium outings.
Delve a little deeper and Adana were especially effective against sides below them in the Super Lig standings.
Last season, Kluivert’s outfit returned an exceptional W12-D2-L0 against sides outside of the top-five and the Blue Lightning are doing a fine job at replicating those super-strong records this term.
After 13 rounds of action, Adana again sit fourth, having posted W6-D1-L0 in front of their home supporters – the only points dropped this season came when table-toppers Fenerbahce arrived.
It means, Adana have now tabled 18 triumphs from their past 25 New Adana Stadium matches and W16-D2-L0 here against teams outside of the top-five.
On Saturday, newly-promoted Samsunspor arrive. The visitors are struggling to step-up in class and come into this clash second-bottom with nine defeats in 13; the majority of that damage has been done on their travels with Markus Gisdol’s group picking up a sole point from seven road trips (W0-D1-L6). The Red Lightning have scored only four away goals.
Exclude the bottom-four and Samsunspor have suffered nine losses in 11, including six defeats from six against top-half teams.
I’m therefore quite happy to oppose the guests here with Adana boasting the fourth-best Expected Goals (xG) process behind the Big Three in Turkey, and the home side offer decent value at 1.70 to secure all three points.
We can bolster the odds the offer to 2.25 by including Under 4.5 Goals. Only three of the duos combined 26 Super Lig outings have featured five goals or more and two of those tussles involved Besiktas and Galatasaray.
We’ll be paid-out should Adana win 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 2-1 or 3-1 this weekend.
Recommended Bet: ADANA DEMIRSPOR & UNDER 4.5 vs Samsunspor – 1 unit @ 2.25
Recommended Bets
- OVER 2.5 GOALS Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam – 1 unit @ 1.75
- ADANA DEMIRSPOR & UNDER 4.5 vs Samsunspor – 1 unit @ 2.25
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