Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share his favourite fancies from the weekend with a plays proposed from Italy and Belgium.
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03:44 Arsenal vs Crystal Palace
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MONZA BACKED IN TUSCANY TUSSLE
Monza made their Serie A debut in 2022/23, tabling a creditable 11th-placed finish following the successful promotion of Raffaele Palladino from youth team coach to first-team manager.
The Biancorossi are tracking along similar lines this season with the Lombardy outfit producing their best work when taking on the league’s lesser lights.
Monza were smashed 5-1 by table-topping Inter last weekend, extending the Brianzoli’s winless streak against top-half teams this term.
However, Palladino’s posse are more than capable of bouncing back at relegation-haunted Empoli on Sunday having posted W6-D3-L0 when taking on the bottom-10, including pocketing top honours in three of four away days.
The Biancorossi have restricted bottom-half opposition to a maximum of one goal in eight of those aforementioned nine matches, recording four clean sheets along the way.
Monza have also managed to score themselves in all nine of those match-ups, giving the Brianzoli a strong foundation to work from in this environment.
I’m therefore eager to support Monza +0 start at 1.90 as they travel to an Empoli outfit that’s registered only three Serie A triumphs thus far.
The Tuscans have picked up only three points from eight winless encounters since November’s international break, have lost a league-high 13 league fixtures and boast the division’s worst home record (W1-D2-L7).
Last weekend Empoli were turned over in an important six-pointer against fellow strugglers Verona, whilst their only home success arrived against rock-bottom Salernitana.
Going forward, Gli Azzurri have notched a solitary strike in five fixtures, as well as totalling a miserable tally of only five goals in front of their own supporters in 15 hours of action.
- Monza +0.0 Asian Handicap in Empoli vs Monza – 1 unit @ 1.90
ANTWERP APPEAL IN BELGIUM
Antwerp endured a disastrous debut Champions League campaign this season, and struggled for consistency in the domestic game, yet the Reds are worth supporting at 1.95 to overcome Charleroi in Sunday’s Pro League showdown at the Bosuilstadion.
Mark van Bommel’s defending champions are way off the pace in the latest title race with their record against the top-six proving problematic.
But Antwerp have been strong operators against the rest of the Belgian top-flight, returning W10-D0-L2, including five home victories by an aggregate of 12-3.
Underlying performance data metrics also point to an Antwerp side strong enough to justify their slight odds-on status. The Reds rank third on home Expected Points (xP) and even top the home Expected Goals (xP) ratio ratings, generating a league-high 2.29 non-penalty xG per-game in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi head north in search of their first away success of the season on Sunday (W0-D3-L7).
The shot-shy guests have scored just four goals in those 10 away tussles, siting third-bottom for away xP, and third-bottom also for away xG process – only lowly Eupen produce a worse npxG average when playing away, highlighting their woes in front of goal.
- Antwerp -0.5 Asian Handicap in Antwerp vs Charleroi – 1 unit @ 1.95
Recommended Bets
- Monza +0.0 Asian Handicap in Empoli vs Monza – 1 unit @ 1.90
- Antwerp -0.5 Asian Handicap in Antwerp vs Charleroi – 1 unit @ 1.95
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