Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share his favourite fancies from the weekend with a pair of plays proposed from the Premier League and EFL.
BOTH TO OBLIGE IN BASEMENT BATTLE
The Premier League is major Europe’s top-scoring league in 2023/24 with an average of 3.25 goals per-game – a tasty 61% of those showdowns have featured Both Teams To Score winners, a percentage hit-rate that would imply blanket odds on a repeat around the 4/6 (1.66) mark. So when 4/5 (1.8) is offered, it’s well worth a second look.
Crystal Palace are hosting Luton here at Selhurst Park on Saturday with the Eagles in the midst of a new era with Oliver Glasner taking charge of first-team affairs following Roy Hodgson’s departure.
The Austrian boss has already shifted systems to a three-at-the-back approach, utilising wing-backs and encouraging his side to be more front-foot.
Palace largely impressed in their most recent home outing, a 3-0 victory over Burnley, and with Ebere Eze since returning to the fold, have strengthened.
Eze’s exceptional free-kick last time out at Tottenham means the Eagles have now scored in 16 of their past 18 Premier League fixtures and the expectation is for Palace to enhance that return here.
Luton have received plenty of plaudits for their competitive displays since promotion, yet the Hatters are still searching for their first clean sheet on the road.
Nevertheless, Town’s final-third threat has to be highlighted – Rob Edwards’ outfit have gotten on the scoresheet in 22 of 26 overall encounters, grabbing a goal in 10 of their 13 away days thus far.
With Palace moving away from their pragmatist past, and Luton embracing the challenge for top-flight survival with an attacking style, all the ingredients are in-place for an entertaining contest with Both Teams To Score favoured at 4/5 (1.80).
This selection has already banked in 62% of Palace home games, as well as 75% of Luton’s road trips, though the market makes probability makes a repeat just a 55% chance, which appears to underrate the prospect of a goal-heavy clash.
- BTTS Yes in Crystal Palace vs Luton – 1 unit @ 1.8
DISMISS THE DRAGONS
Big-budget Wrexham were well-fancied to challenge for back-to-back promotions after securing the National League title last term.
The Dragons are only three points off the League Two summit as we turn for home, though Phil Parkinson’s team have routinely displayed Jekyll and Hyde features across their respective home and away matches.
FC Hollywood are hands-down the strongest fourth-tier team when entertaining opposition – Wrexham have comfortably won the most games, earned the most points and scored the most goals on home League Two soil.
However, the Welsh outfit have toiled on their travels, winning just five of 17 away days (W5-D7-L6) and scoring a league-low tally of 16 goals.
It’s therefore difficult to trust Wrexham at odds-on quotes when they travel to Morecambe this weekend. The Shrimpers produced an eye-catching effort to secure top honours at high-flying Crewe last weekend and backed that performance up with a second successive victory in midweek over Crawley to move level on points with the play-off positions.
Morecambe have already held table-topping Mansfield and second-placed Stockport at the Mazuma Stadium this season, so the 1.98 on the Shrimpers with a +0.50 start here is verging on disrespectful, especially considering Wrexham have tasted success just once in nine trips to top-half teams with their recent away days proving particularly problematic.
Since Boxing Day, Wrexham have been beaten at Walsall, Newport, Salford and Gillingham, drew at MK Dons and Forest Green with their only success outside of the Racecourse Ground arriving at rock-bottom Sutton.
- Morecambe +0.5 Asian Handicap in Morecambe vs Wrexham – 1 unit @ 1.98
Recommended Bets
- BTTS Yes in Crystal Palace vs Luton – 1 unit @ 1.8
- Morecambe +0.5 Asian Handicap in Morecambe vs Wrexham – 1 unit @ 1.98
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