Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on MLS and Brazil this weekend.
Major League Soccer returns from its mid-season break this weekend with a mouthwatering match-up between Eastern Conference table-toppers Inter Miami and second-placed Cincinnati. Despite injury ruling out home superstar Lionel Messi, I’m still expecting an entertaining encounter with goals on the agenda at the Chase Stadium.
As a whole, MLS is averaging a hefty 3.12 goals per-game this season with 62% of fixtures featuring Over 2.5 Goals and 65% of matches banking for Both Teams To Score backers. These two have been particularly prominent in both markets making the combination of Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS just too big to ignore at 5/6 (1.83) quotes.
Inter’s dates are averaging 3.80 goals. A huge 80% of their 25 tussles went Over 2.5, with the same hit-rate occurring in the BTTS market – Miami have scored in 23 of those 25 games, recording only four clean sheets along the way. At their Floridian base, the hosts have scored in every game with 10 of those 13 outings delivering Over 2.5 and BTTS.
Cincinnati’s matches have averaged 3.42 goals with 64% seeing Over 2.5 click and 68% bagging for Both Teams To Score hunters. The visitors have notched in 21 of 25 MLS matches, recording six shutouts. On their travels, Cinci have scored in 12/12 with nine of those encounters going Over and 10 of those 12 seeing both sides score.
The high-flyers met as recently as July, a contest that saw Cincinnati thrash Inter 6-1 in the reverse and whilst I’m not anticipating a repeat, both sides are well capable of contributing to what should be an absorbing, goal-laden affair.
Fortaleza progressed to the Copa Sudamericana quarter-finals on Wednesday night with an impressive 3-1 home success over Rosario of Argentina, continuing their fine form in front of their home supporters. Their Arena Castelao base has proven a real fortress this term with Juan Pablo Vojvoda’s team boasting Serie A’s best home record in 2024.
Fortaleza start the weekend just one point off the summit, with a game in-hand. They’ve taken top honours in nine of their 12 home fixtures and have conceded just six goals in 18 hours of league football as hosts. The Tricolor are ranked second on home Expected Points (xP) and have won the Expected Goals (xG) battle in seven of their 12 Castelao contests.
With seven triumphs from eight when welcoming Serie A opposition from outside the top-eight, I’m happy to back Fortaleza this weekend at 1.80 when struggling Corinthians make the long journey north. The visitors went to extra-time in their own Copa Sudamericana progression in midweek and are enduring a forgettable domestic campaign.
The seven-time champions are in the relegation zone having pocketed only four victories in 23 and Corinthians’ away record is the worst in the division (W1-D3-L8). The Todo Poderoso have scored just five goals in their 12 games as guests – being nilled on eight occasions already – and are therefore easily opposed at the prices.
Fortaleza – the league’s best home side with the best home defence – are 1.80 to take maximum points against a Corinthians side with the division’s worst away record and worst away attack. That’s good enough for me.
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