Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on Belgium and Switzerland this weekend.
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UNDERS THE ANGLE ON FRIDAY
We’re seven matchdays into the new season in Belgium and 33% of the opening encounters have featured a maximum of just one goal. Standard Liege are a significant contributor to that tally with Friday night’s hosts seeing five of their first seven fixtures conclude either 0-0 or 1-0 – all seven saw Under 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score ‘No’ backers bank.
Arch-pragmatist Ivan Leko has seen his side offer next to nothing in forward areas with a key focus on thwarting opposition outfits. Look at Les Rouches’ seven dates in more detail and we can see, the average Expected Goals (xG) total when excluding penalties comes to a measly 1.79 xG per-game, comfortably a divisional low at this stage of the campaign.
Drill deeper and no Pro League side are generating a lower non-penalty xG (npxG) output than Standard’s appalling 0.62 npxG figure per-game. Unsurprisingly, the hosts have fired four blanks in seven, scoring just two non-penalty goals. However, their solid rearguard has given up just three goals, one of which was an own goal. It’s dreadfully dull.
Last season’s runners-up St Gilloise have also been privy to a number of matches low on entertainment. Now under the tutorship of relative rookie head coach Sebastian Pocognoli, Les Unionistes have failed to score on four occasions (when excluding penalties), notching six non-penalty goals all season, whilst also recording four clean sheets of their own.
Five of those seven match-ups paid-out for both Under 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score ‘No’ hunters and so it’s easy to presume a repeat could be in the offing on Friday night when Union travel to Standard. Under 2.5 Goals is offered at 1.86 and has provided profit in 12 of the duos combined 14 Pro League matches this season, a price I’m onboard with.
- Standard Liege vs Union St Gilloise – Under 2.5 Goals – 1 unit @ 1.86
GOALS FORECAST IN SWITZERLAND
The Swiss Super League is a league accustomed to high-scoring shootouts and the first six rounds of action has followed a familiar theme. The division is currently posting a 3.13 goals per-game average with 40% of fixtures breaking the Over 3.5 Goals barrier – Saturday’s showdown between Grasshoppers and Servette has the potential to enhance that return.
Grasshoppers (W1-D1-L4) have conceded multiple goals in four of their six outings thus far, but have plundered seven goals of their own, five of which arrived at their Zurich base. Five of those six matches have delivered Over 2.5 Goals profits and that’s the angle I’m keen to explore here at 1.73 with Servette boasting similarly strong numbers.
The visitors finished third last season and are already up in second place (W4-D0-L2), despite enduring a 6-0 thrashing at Basel back in early August. Servette have only silenced one of their six opponents, yet the high-flyers have hit the back of the net 10 times with their Super League showdowns averaging 3.83 goals – five of those six landing Over 2.5.
That lofty goals per-game output is largely mirrored by the Expected Goals (xG) figures in Servette’s encounters – the away side have seen an average of 3.40 xG per-game this season and another open and exciting contest could be on the cards on Saturday afternoon.
- Grasshoppers vs Servette – Over 2.5 Goals – 1 unit @ 1.75
Recommended Bets
- Standard Liege vs Union St Gilloise – Under 2.5 Goals – 1 unit @ 1.86
- Grasshoppers vs Servette – Over 2.5 Goals – 1 unit @ 1.75
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