Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on Portugal this weekend.
Premier League GW10 🎧@MarkOHaire and @adrianjclarke join @DanielHussey2 to preview this weekend's ⚽
Some big prices put up 👀https://t.co/LkxZO2FqT7 🎥https://t.co/VWbBbRaXaz
— Matchbook Betting Exchange (@TeamMatchbook) October 31, 2024
Benfica are eight points shy of city rivals Sporting in the Primeira Liga standings, yet the Eagles have significantly improved since an early season coaching change. Under Bruno Lage’s watch, Os Encarnados have returned an exceptional W10-D1-L1 across all competitions with their only reverse arriving against Feyenoord in the Champions League.
During that same sample, Benfica have hammered Atletico Madrid 4-0, whilst also winning away at Red Star Belgrade. The 38-time league champions believe they’re still right in the hunt for domestic honours with a game in-hand over table-toppers Sporting, who have also been unsettled by the imminent departure of head coach Ruben Amorim.
This weekend Benfica travel to rock-bottom Farense. The home side have picked up just four points from their first nine league fixtures (W1-D1-L7), scoring just three goals all season (across almost 14 hours of football). Sporting, Porto and Braga have already beaten the strugglers with two of those tussles seeing the hosts fail to score. A repeat appeals.
Benfica to win and BTTS No pays 2.15 and shouldn’t be odds-against in my book. The Eagles are giving up just 0.56 Expected Goals (xG) per-game and allowing only 2.88 shots inside the penalty area. Meanwhile, Farense have averaged 29% possession and conceded 18 shots in the box per-game in their aforementioned contests against Sporting, Porto and Braga.
Benfica are trading below 1.25 just to win the fixture so the boost to include a clean sheet cannot be ignored considering 13 of the combined 18 Primeira Liga matches involving these two teams have featured successful BTTS No selections.
It was a tumultuous summer for Porto. Long-term head coach Sergio Conceicao decided to move on after a seven-year spell at the Dragao, whilst former boss Andre Villas-Boas returned to the club in a presidential role. Conceicao’s former assistant Victor Bruno was given the first-team gig and has so far made a positive start to life in the hot-seat.
The Dragons boast an W8-D0-L1 record in the Primeira Liga with a 2-0 defeat at league leaders Sporting the only blemish. Porto are therefore only three points off the summit with Bruno’s boys conceding just two goals across their remaining eight encounters. Six of their eight league victories have arrived alongside clean sheets.
Porto to win and Both Teams To Score ‘No’ is trading at 1.80 on Sunday, an appealing price given the Dragons are available at no bigger than 1.15 to win on the nose. Mid-table Estoril have already fired five blanks in nine league outings, including three of their four previous away days, whilst also failing to score in a 3-0 home reverse to Sporting last month.
Only one top-flight team is averaging a lower non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG) figure than Estoril with the visitors also rock-bottom for shots attempted and on-target efforts laned. In contrast, Porto are comfortably amongst the top-three teams for almost all the major defensive metrics this term, whilst scoring multiple goals of their own in eight of nine dates.
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