Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on the Premier League and League One this weekend.
FOREST FANCIED
Nottingham Forest remain right in the hunt for a top-four Premier League finish (and possibly more) after an absorbing night under the lights at the City Ground in midweek. Nuno Espirito-Santo’s side went toe-to-toe with table-toppers Liverpool to justify their top-four position in the top-flight with another monumental effort.
There was a tinge of disappointment from the hosts post-match after Chris Wood’s opener – which came against the run of play – only translated into a point apiece at full-time. However, the Tricky Trees were put under huge pressure throughout and stood up strong to Liverpool’s intensity, underlining why they have one of the best defences in the division.
Forest had just 29% of the ball and produced only 0.39 Expected Goals (xG) compared to their opponent’s 1.95 xG with Matz Sels forced into a string of fine saves. Murillo also impressed, making 17 clearances – the most blocks or clearances by a player in a Premier League match since 2016-17, whilst Ola Aina made a vital goal line clearance late on.
The Reds may have missed out on equalling a club record seven straight league victories (which was set in 1922) but Nuno’s troops can get back on track this Sunday. Forest have scored the opening goal in 17 of their 21 EPL outings now – an astonishing trend – and repeating that trick this weekend should provide the perfect foundation for victory.
The Tricky Trees boast the third-meanest defence and have hugely impressed against teams in 10th and below (W10-D2-L0), keeping eight shutouts in that 12-game sample. Forest also enjoy a handy rest and schedule advantage here having hosted Liverpool on Tuesday, with Southampton away at Man Utd on Thursday before heading to the City Ground on Sunday.
Saints were slaughtered 5-0 at home to Brentford to make it 16 league losses in 20 ahead of their trip to Old Trafford and the south coast club have picked up just two points from a possible 30 on their travels since promotion, managing only five goals. The visitors have failed to score in five of their last six and have lost to nil in nine of their 20 tussles overall.
With Forest trading well below the 1.50 mark here, I’m quite happy to back the 2.30 on Nottingham Forest to win and Both Teams To Score – No. It’s a wager that’s won in eight of the Reds’ 12 matches against teams in 10th and below, including the reverse game against Southampton, and pits the worst attack against one of the best defences in the division.
- Nottingham Forest vs Southampton – Nottingham Forest to win & BTTS No – 1 unit @ 2.3
ROYAL APPROVAL
Reading have been through the ringer over the past 18 months. Up for sale since autumn 2023, the club have been unable to shake off disastrous owner Dai Yongge and have been hit by numerous financial penalties, restrictions and points deductions. Head coach Ruben Selles also departed the Berkshire boys after a sterling effort in the managerial hot-seat.
Nevertheless, the Royals deserve huge credit for continuing to compete towards the upper echelons of League One. Occupying a top-six berth, Reading have built their campaign upon a rock-solid home record and Noel Hunt’s young side command much more respect than the market is offering them ahead of Saturday’s showdown with out-of-form Stockport.
Reading start the weekend three points above their opponents, with a game in-hand. The Royals have also posted nine league wins from their 11 Madjeski Stadium outings this season, whilst also averaging 2.00 points per-game in 34 league fixtures here going back to the start of last season. Impressively, the hosts have scored in 30 of those 34 matches.
Yet Reading are rated 3.35 underdogs here, meaning we can support the home side at 2.00 with a +0.25 Asian Handicap start. This selection provides profit should the Royals avoid defeat, a hugely appealing offering considering Stockport arrive in Berkshire without their 15-goal top scorer Louis Barry following the end of his loan spell from Aston Villa.
What’s more, the Hatters have only tabled seven triumphs in their last 22 League One games, including taking top honours only twice in their past 11 away days. County are winless in eight trips to the top-14 – conceding in every encounter, whilst scoring only six goals in that same sample. More recently, Stockport have won only twice in eight.
It makes little sense to see Stockport as short as 2.15 to seal victory here and so I’ll happily support Reading at evens off a +0.25 start on the Asian Handicap.
- Reading vs Stockport – Reading +0.0/0.5 Asian Handicap – 1 unit @ 2.0
Recommended Bets
- Nottingham Forest vs Southampton – Nottingham Forest to win & BTTS No – 1 unit @ 2.3
- Reading vs Stockport – Reading +0.0/0.5 Asian Handicap – 1 unit @ 2.0
Watch Ep 2 – The Matchbook Cheltenham Trail below:
Subscribe to the Matchbook Betting Podcast here
Subscribe to the Matchbook YouTube channel here
