Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on the EFL and Turkey this weekend.
Morecambe face an uncertain future. Eighteen years after entering the EFL, the Shrimps were relegated from League Two on Easter Monday following a comprehensive 3-1 defeat at Salford, the side’s fourth successive loss.
The club have been up for sale since September 2022, but there is still no sign of a takeover being completed with issues including a transfer embargo, a points deduction, late payment of wages and funding problems looming large. Current owner Jason Whittingham said earlier this season that he “cannot wait to get out of the club”.
Derek Adams – in his third stint as Morecambe boss – has done an admirable job of taking the fight for survival as far as he can, and he has done well to hold the dressing room together in the process. But with non-league football now confirmed, it’s difficult to see the Shrimps competing at their best over the final two weekends of regular season action.
A trip to play-off chasing Chesterfield is unlikely to be easy. The Spireites battled back to pinch a dramatic point against Yorkshire rivals Bradford last time out to keep their top-seven hopes alive and the opportunity to back Chesterfield to win and Over 1.5 Goals at 1.75 holds plenty of appeal considering the hosts’ motivation.
Paul Cook’s charges have already beaten Morecambe 5-2 in the reverse, whilst taking top honours in six of eight encounters with bottom-five opposition, notching at least twice in each victory. Now they face a Morecambe outfit that’s lost 10 straight away days, been beaten in 19 of 23 tussles with top-half teams and failed to score in 16 of those showdowns.
A big game in Turkey’s top-flight on Saturday with potential recursions at opposite ends of the Super Lig table here. Bodrumspor occupy the final relegation position and welcome a Samsunspor side that’s sitting in third and on-course for Europa League qualification. However, the visitors recent form has put their top-three finish in real jeopardy.
Samsunspor have failed to score in four of their past five fixtures (W0-D1-L4) and look vulnerable here against an improving Bodrum outfit. The hosts have taken time to find their feet in their debut top-tier campaign, yet they come into this crunch clash having posted W5-D3-L2 with their only defeats arriving against Galatasaray and Fenerbahce.
Remarkably, Bodrum have recorded clean sheets in each of their last eight games when excluding matches against the top-two, an outrageous return for a side battling against the drop. No Super Lig club has now posted more clean sheet than Jose Morais’ men (13) with the hosts conceding just 0.80 home goals per-game (1.13 per-game) over the season.
The data suggests only a slight overperformance from Bodrum with the newcomers giving up only 0.99 non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG). However, the home side have struggled to match their defensive exploits at the opposite end of the pitch, scoring just 23 goals in 31 league dates, leading to a glut of Both Teams To Score – No winners.
BTTS No has therefore banked in 11 of Bodrum’s past 13, in 23 of 31 overall, as well as in 11 of 15 at their Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu base. Samsunspor have followed suit in 12 of their previous 18, in 11 of 16 on their travels with the visitors also firing blanks in six of their last 10 on their travels. Both Teams To Score – No stands-out at 1.87.
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