Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on Serie A and the Championship play-offs this weekend.
OPPOSE EXHAUSTED INTER
Internazionale booked their place in the Champions League final for the second time in three years in midweek following an exhausting and exhilarating semi-final second leg success over Barcelona. Simone Inzaghi’s squad had to dig extra deep at San Siro and the toll of Tuesday night’s tussle is bound to influence selection this Sunday.
Inzaghi admitted post-match that Lautaro Martinez, Denzel Dumfries and Davide Frattesi were not 100% fit, whilst the likes of Marcus Thuram and Francesco Acerbi were struggling late on. Inter are therefore expected to ring the changes for their trip to Torino and it looks highly unlikely the Nerazzurri will field anything close to their best XI here.
With that in-mind, I’m eager to oppose Inter with Torino being given an attractive Asian Handicap start. Torino +1 is available at 1.88 and requires Inter to win the game by two clear goals or more for our stake to be lost – a home win or draw provides profit with an away-day victory by a solitary strike returning a push.
Inter rested and rotated their team last weekend and could only manage a stuffy 1-0 win at home to bottom-half dwellers Verona with the decisive strike arriving from the penalty spot. Prior to that narrow victory, the Nerazzurri failed to score in back-to-back Serie A defeats and the guests have beaten this handicap only once on the road since Christmas.
It’s true too that Inter’s renowned resilience and defensive fortitude has been questioned domestically with Inzaghi’s outfit managing only four clean sheets in their previous 17 league outings. Should the Champions League finalists concede at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Inter would require at least three goals to see our selection sink.
Torino don’t have anything left to play for, though Paolo Vanoli’s troops are well-capable of keeping things competitive. The Granata should relish the visit of the defending champions and come into this clash having been turned over only three times since Christmas in an 18-game sample. They’ve also been beaten by 2+ goals just once at home all season.
- Torino vs Inter Milan – Torino +1.0 Asian Handicap – 1 unit @ 1.88
COVENTRY STAND-OUT IN THE CHAMPIONSHIP
No side has ever arrived at an EFL play-off campaign following five successive league defeats and Sunderland’s poor recent form make the Black Cats easily opposable ahead of their Championship semi-final first leg showdown against Coventry on Friday night.
The Wearsiders started the season superbly and were amongst the front-runners before Christmas, though Regis Le Bris’ boys fell away in the last quarter of the campaign, suffering eight defeats in their final 14 league fixtures. Sunderland scored just nine goals in that 14-game sample and were blanked in five of their most recent six showdowns. It’s been bleak.
Considering Sunderland have posted W0-D3-L4 at top-seven teams this term, the opportunity to support Coventry here with a -0.25 Asian Handicap start stands-out at 1.99. We’ll be paid-out should the Sky Blues secure a first leg success and only lose half of our stake if the match ends all-square. Only a Sunderland win sees our full stake lost.
Coventry underwent a remarkable turnaround following Frank Lampard’s appointment, parachuting themselves into the play-offs having been just two points above the drop-zone in December. The Sky Blues have proven particularly formidable at their CBS Arena base this term, returning an eye-catching W11-D1-L2 here in the past 14 home league fixtures.
Sunderland were sliced and diced 3-0 here as recently as mid-March and only the top-two came away from the CBS Arena with top honours since early November, highlighting Coventry’s record in front of their own supporters. The Sky Blues are an attractive price to seal top honours here, though I prefer to take a more pragmatic approach.
EFL play-off first legs are notoriously tight and the last 18 first legs at Championship level have produced just 1.44 goals per-game – 10 of those tussles featured Under 1.5 Goals and the -0.25 Asian Handicap just guards us against the potential low-scoring stalemate.
- Coventry vs Sunderland – Coventry -0.0/0.5 Asian Handicap – 1 unit @ 1.99
Recommended Bets
- Torino vs Inter Milan – Torino +1.0 Asian Handicap – 1 unit @ 1.88
- Coventry vs Sunderland – Coventry -0.0/0.5 Asian Handicap – 1 unit @ 1.99
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