Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on the Premier League and Eliteserien this weekend.
Aston Villa’s impressive 1-0 success at Bournemouth last weekend has kept Unai Emery’s men right in the mix for a top-five Premier League finish. The Villains have now tabled seven league victories in eight and return home on Friday night for what should be a presentable opportunity to enhance that impressive record against a distracted Tottenham team.
Whilst Villa have everything to play for, the same cannot be said for Spurs. The capital club head to fortress Villa Park with their priorities quite clearly elsewhere – the Europa League final on Wednesday is Ange Postecoglou and players’ full focus and it’s therefore difficult to assume we’ll see a major improvement on Tottenham’s dreadful recent EPL displays.
Spurs were dominated at home by Crystal Palace last time out and head to the Second City having W1-D2-L7 in their past 10 top-flight tussles, the only win in that sequence came against rock-bottom Southampton. It’s now 20 Premier League losses this term, whilst the visitors have also been beaten in 11 of their previous 13 trips to top-14 opposition.
With little motivation or form to speak of, Tottenham are easily opposed here. Aston Villa are enjoying their second-longest unbeaten home run (W14-D6-L0) and come into this contest off a series of eye-catching efforts in both boxes. The hosts have kept five clean sheets in their last eight EPL dates, giving up only 0.94 Expected Goals (xG) per-game.
So with Villa trading below 2/5 (1.40) to win this fixture, I’m keen to have a crack at the more attractive 15/8 (2.88) on Aston Villa winning alongside Both Teams To Score – No considering the mentality of the two teams. Spurs have averaged only 1.14 xG in their past eight outings and have lost without scoring in five of 11 trips to the top-12 already.
We’re around seven weeks deep into the new Eliteserien season with the Norwegian top-flight immediately picking up on long-term goal trends. The division is avergaing a tasty 3.02 goals per-game with 67% of overall matches seeing Over 2.5 Goals bank with 39% going on to feature four goals or more.
Stromsgodset’s game with newly-promoted Byrne on Friday evening has the potential to enhance those hefty numbers with Over 2.5 Goals standing-out at 3/4 (1.75). The two teams have been heavily amongst the goals in the opening exchanges and their frantic and front-foot styles should suit an open and exciting encounter at the Marienlyst Stadion.
The duo have tabled only three triumphs between them in 12 combined contests as defences have proven fragile. The pair have shipped 23 goals between them, managed a solitary shutout and leaked multiple times in nine of those 12 collective matches, yet they’ve also managed to get on the scoresheet themselves on eight occasions.
A massive 11 of those 12 dates have delivered in the Over 2.5 Goals market and the underlying metrics suggest a repeat could be in the offing. Exclude penalties and Stromsgodset’s showdowns are avergaing a massive 3.56 xG with Byrne’s figures not far behind at 3.22 xG per-game. Big Chances have also proven prolific.
The visitors have already notched twice at high-flying Brann this season and won’t be intimidated against the home side, who have given up the third-most opportunities in the division thus far. So with two front-foot sides with weak rearguards facing-off, I’m eager to support a goal-heavy game with Over 2.5 Goals surprisingly available at a backable price.
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