Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on the Eliteserien and MLS this weekend.
Viking look to continue their quest for a first Eliteserien crown since 1991 on Sunday when they welcome fifth-placed Rosenborg to Stavanger. Back-to-back victories have ensured the hosts remain right in the title hunt, sitting level on points with table-topping Bodo/Glimt as we enter the final third of the Norwegian top-flight campaign.
Home comforts could prove decisive here. Viking have posted W6-D2-L1 as hosts, plundering 24 goals in the process – in six of those nine dates, the Dark Blues have notched at least three times, whilst avergaing a hefty 2.45 xG per-game. Morten Jensen’s men now look well-placed to enhance that impressive record against a weary Rosenborg outfit.
Rosenborg were unbeaten in their opening eight Eliteserien outings, though the Trondheim giants have since returned W3-D3-L4 to slide 12 points behind the top-two. Alfred Johansson’s outfit have underwhelmed on their travels (W3-D2-L4), a sample that includes three heavy recent defeats and 16 goals conceded in their last five road trips.
The Troillongan – quite literally, “The Troll Children” – come into this clash immediately after a taxing Thursday night trip to Mainz in their Europa Conference League qualifying clash. Rosenborg hold a slender lead going into that game and will be prioritising their continental commitments, giving a fresh and focused Viking side the edge.
So with title-chasing Viking firing freely at home, and Rosenborg distracted and depleted, the home team are well-placed to justify favouritism at 1.80 on Sunday.
New York City are well worth supporting on Saturday night as they bid to extend their excellent recent run and inch closer to a top-eight berth in MLS’s Eastern Conference. Nick Cushing’s charges are a solitary point off the play-off positions, although momentum is very much in their corner having banked five wins from their past seven showdowns.
The Pigeons have turned over high-flying pair Cincinnati and Orlando in recent road trips and now return to Yankee Stadium, eager to enhance their already impressive home record. NYC have pocketed top honours in nine of their 12 tussles in front of their own supporters and are understandably short-priced favourites against struggling DC United.
DC remain rooted to the bottom of the East, and only two points off propping up the whole of MLS. The Eagles have posted just four league victories all season, winning once since early May, and come into this clash having been beaten in eight of their last 11 outings. The visitors have suffered nine defeats in 14 away days, losing the xG battle on 11 occasions.
With NYC too short to support on the nose, a more palatable price emerges by backing the Bronx boys alongside Under 4.5 Goals. New York’s fixtures rarely escalate into high-scoring shootouts: 19 of 26 matches have featured Under 3.5 Goals, with only two surpassing the 4.5 line. As hosts, nine of 12 contests concluded Under 3.5, and none have seen 5+ strikes.
It’s a similar story with DC – just four of their overall outings this term have broken the Over 4.5 Goals barrier, with 79% of games settling Under 3.5. Given those trends, siding with New York City to win and Under 4.5 Goals at 1.90 makes plenty of appeal, keeping the 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 2-1 and 3-1 scorelines onside.
+2.01 units – Mark O’Haire’s Insights P&L
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