Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on the Premier League and Ligue 1 on Sunday.
The Premier League is avergaing an eye-catching 2.82 goals per-game in 2025/26 with 57% of overall outings delivering Over 2.5 Goals profit. Turning that 57% hit-rate into an implied blanket price, we would expect to see Over 2.5 Goals chalked up around the 3/4 (1.75) mark in a typical top-flight game this weekend.
Brentford’s clash with Leeds on Sunday looks and feels like a potentially goal-heavy match-up, yet Over 2.5 Goals is trading around 9/10 (1.90), making the price an almost-automatic selection with plenty of persuasive data and theory supporting the prospect of goals.
Brentford are bidding to snap a two-game losing streak following their 2-0 defeats at Arsenal and Tottenham. The Bees away record has been questionable under Keith Andrews, yet the Community Stadium club have proven especially effective in front of their own supporters – only Man City have created more Big Chances at home this season.
Brentford are averaging 2.14 goals per-game at the Gtech, racking up 3+ goals in four of their opening seven home showdowns, avergaing a very healthy 1.59 npxG here. Yet their record of only two clean sheets across the campaign has led to 5/7 winning Both Teams To Score wagers, and 5/7 successful Over 3.5 Goals bets have banked on home soil thus far.
Leeds come into this clash following a terrific recent run. Daniel Farke’s switch to a 3-5-2 direct system at half-time at Man City has rejuvenated the Whites campaign; the visitors won the second-half at The Etihad, beat Chelsea and held Liverpool in a remarkable 225 minute spell, scoring eight goals in the process.
Over 2.5 Goals has now collected in 10 of Leeds’ last 11 Premier League matches with BTTS paying-out on nine occasions. More recently, the Whites have seen 4+ goals land in four of their most recent five fixtures and so it makes little sense to see Over 2.5 Goals as the outsider in the market with the 9/10 (1.90) holding plenty of appeal on Sunday.
It’s been a traumatic season for Nice. The relationship between the club and their disillusioned fanbase worsened last weekend as Les Aiglons lost for a seventh successive game – 1-0 at home to Angers – in front of a sparse crowd at the Allianz Riviera.
There were fewer than 8,000 inside the 27,000-capacity stadium and those who were present jeered the home players. La Populaire Sud, Nice’s biggest group of ultras, boycotted the game after accusations that they had physically assaulted players Terem Moffi and Jérémie Boga at the training ground the previous weekend.
Head coach Franck Haise had his offer to resign rejected following the fall-out but the atmosphere surrounding the club is toxic and there’s little sign of improvement. Les Aiglons are in European action on Thursday night before facing a devilishly difficult trip to table-topping Lens on Sunday. Backing the home side to win alongside Under 4.5 Goals appeals.
Lens have won four of their last five meetings with Nice, conceding a solitary strike. Without European commitments, the northerners continue to go quietly and efficiently about their business. Pierre Sage’s charges made it five wins in a row and eight from nine by claiming a 2-1 success in Nantes last time out without their suspended talisman Adrien Thomasson.
Les Sang et Or have pocketed six victories on the spin in front of their own supporters and whilst the market is anticipating goals, Lens aren’t accustomed to engaging in high-scoring shootouts. Just two of the hosts’ 15 fixtures have featured four goals or more with only one Ligue 1 contests escalating into a five-goal game or more this season.
Nice arrive having managed only four goals in their seven recent defeats, six of which fell into the Under 4.5 Goals category. Backing the controlled and business-like Lens to win either 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 2-1 or 3-1 on Sunday pays an odds-against 11/10 (2.10).
Subscribe to the Matchbook Betting Podcast here
Subscribe to the Matchbook YouTube channel here
