Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on the Championship and Serie A this weekend.
Hull City continue to defy pre-season predictions of doom by clambering into the Championship play-off places following a recent run of three wins in four. The Tigers impressively ousted fellow high-flyers Millwall on their travels last weekend to slip into the top-six and sit just a solitary point off third place after 21 rounds of action.
Despite their lofty league position, Hull are significant outsiders on Saturday when welcoming terrible travellers West Brom. The Baggies head to Humberside on the back of seven straight away defeats since August, as well as returning a rotten W5-D3-L9 across all venues during that same sample, keeping just three clean sheets.
Only four clubs have picked up fewer points than Albion since the start of September so there’s little appeal in backing WBA at the lines or prices. However, Hull come into this clash without chief goal-getter Joe Gelhardt, as well as imperious centre-half Semi Ajayi, weakening Sergej Jakirovic’s side in both boxes and so I’ll instead focus on goals here.
Over 2.5 Goals has been chalked up as a 10/11 (1.91) poke, which holds plenty of appeal. Hull tend to be strong operators at the MKM Stadium, racking up 15 goals and six victories in eight when welcoming teams outside of the top-six. The Tigers have also seen 15 of their overall 21 tussles feature both sides scoring, including seven of 11 on home soil.
West Brom head to Humberside having notched in 16 of their 21 under Ryan Mason’s tutorship, grabbing a goal in eight of 11 on the road. Yet the two teams have managed measly clean sheet records – silencing their opposition in only five and four respective fixtures. Understandably, Over 2.5 Goals has therefore proven a profitable avenue.
Our proposed play has paid-out in 15/21 (71%) of Hull’s Championship contests under Jakirovic’s, whilst West Brom have followed suit in 7/11 (64%) of their away days this term, suggesting there’s value in supporting another goal-heavy game on Saturday.
Genoa’s transformation into one of Serie A’s most entertaining sides to follow has continued at pace. The Grifone were rock-bottom and winless when Patrick Viera was sacked at the beginning of November having scored just four goals in their opening nine matches. The Rossoblu have since returned W3-D2-L1, scoring 12 goals in six outings.
Ex-Italy international Daniele De Rossi has brought about a much-needed overhaul to lead Genoa out of the bottom-three, playing a more forward-thinking and expressive style of football. The Grifone had notched multiple goals in each of their first five under his stewardship before falling to a 2-1 reverse against table-topping Inter last weekend.
Under Viera, Genoa games were averaging 2.38 xG, 22 shots and four Big Chances – since De Rossi has stepped into the hot-seat, the Rossoblu’s matches are avergaing 2.90 xG, 26 shots and 5.33 Big Chances, highlighting the gear change. Over 2.5 Goals has also now banked in all six showdowns under the new leadership and a repeat stands-out at 2.18.
The price becomes even more attractive when we consider a similar reconstruction is taking place at opposition outfit Atalanta. La Dea recently axed Ivan Juric and brought in Rafaelle Palladino to inspire a response following a dour opening stanza to the season and the visitors have seen a sudden increase in goals and entertainment following the change.
Seven of Atalanta’s last eight outings across all competitions have now seen Over 2.5 Goals pay-out with their four Serie A contests under Palladino avergaing 2.76 xG, over 18 shots from inside the penalty box per-game and 20 Big Chances in total. However, the market hasn’t caught up with the sudden stylistic shift and is still anticipating a low-scoring contest.
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