Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on Germany this Sunday…
The Bundesliga is avergaing 3.26 goals per-game in 2025/26 with 63% of overall outings featuring Over 2.5 Goals and a hefty 43% of fixtures producing four goals or more. That 63% hit-rate implies odds around the 4/7 (1.57) mark would be expected on a blanket top-flight game from Germany and that’s largely the case across the board this weekend.
However, Freiburg’s clash with Koln on Sunday at Europa-Park Stadion goes against the grain with Over 2.5 Goals available to support at an eye-catching 17/20 (1.86). That’s despite both raw numbers and underlying data pointing towards a goal-heavy clash.
Freiburg have fired only four blanks in 18 Bundesliga encounters this term with Julian Schuster’s side getting on the scoresheet in all eight of their home league dates. The Black Forest boys have grabbed at least one goal in 22 of 25 Europa-Park contests since the start of last season, avergaing 1.92 goals per-game in front of their own supporters.
However, Freiburg have also returned just five clean sheets in that 25-game sample, recording a solitary shutout in eight home top-flight tussles this term. That’s led to 7/8 home dates delivering Both Teams To Score winners, with 6/8 seeing Over 2.5 Goals, whilst a massive 80% of those long-term matches have also covered the Over 2.5 Goals mark.
Newly-promoted Koln have established themselves in mid-table with the Billy Goats ending an eight-game winless streak with a vital victory over Mainz last time out. Lukas Kwasniok’s crew have scored in 15 of their 18 fixtures thus far, though the newcomers have also kept their sheets clean only twice and are without a shutout since early October.
Koln have seen 72% of overall matches produce goals at both ends with an average goals per-game output across their contests coming in at 3.17, not far below Freiburg’s figure at 3.33. Meanwhile, the Expected Goals (xG) averages in the duos respective home/away encounters return 3.01 xG and 3.32 xG respectively, highlighting their open nature.
Schalke have endured significant hardship since finishing second in the Bundesliga back in 2018. The Royal Blues have been crippled by crisis, suffering two relegations and posting back-to-back bottom-half finishes in the 2.Bundesliga in the past five years, though their move to bring in Plymouth coach Miron Muslic has dramatically changed fortunes.
The Bosnian-born boss has inspired a welcome revival of the sleeping giant. Schalke are the world’s sixth biggest club in terms of membership with the third highest attendances in Germany and the Gelsenkirchen club are working their way back to the big time, sitting four points clear at the summit of the second-tier thanks to a W12-D2-L4 campaign.
Despite their table-topping position, Schalke are an intriguing side. Even rock-bottom Greuther Furth have scored more goals than the Royal Blues with Muslic’s men operating off the lowest average possession figures in the division. Schalke aim to play aggressive, intense and brave football which often relies on picking off their opposition.
It’s a mantra that’s worked well thus far. Schalke have recorded 10 clean sheets in their opening 18 league outings, conceded just four goals in their eight Veltins-Arena matches – the Royal Blues have bagged top honours in seven of those showdowns and another success is priced up nicely at 21/20 (2.05) ahead of Sunday’s clash with Kaiserslautern.
Kaiserslautern might be fifth in the current 2.Bundesliga standings, though the visitors are unreliable on the road, losing half of their eight away days and failing to even score in four of those eight outings. Last season FCK were beaten in six of eight trips to the top-eight, including all five fixtures with top-five opposition and a repeat could be in the offing.
Whereas Schalke have won the xG battle in six of eight Veltins-Arena dates this term, as well as winning the shot count in all eight, Kaiserslautern have lost the xG, shot, shots on-target and shots in the box count in six of their eight games as guests, suggesting they’ll come unstuck here. Schalke should be trading as odds-on favourites.
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