Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on Serie A and the Bundesliga this weekend.
Sassuolo’s return to Serie A has been quietly impressive. Already 11 points clear of the relegation zone, survival looks more a matter of when now than if for the Neroverdi.
A superb win at Udinese last time out made it three victories in Sassuolo’s last four league matches, with the only blemish coming against an Inter side running away with the Scudetto. When Fabio Grosso’s group have faced teams outside of that elite bracket, results have been consistently competitive and extremely impressive.
Take out the current top five in Serie A – Inter, Milan, Napoli, Juventus and Roma – and Sassuolo boast a marvellous W9-D4-L4 return. Now the Emilia-Romagna outfit host rock-bottom Hellas Verona on Friday night and it’s surprising to see the hosts available to support at quotes of 17/20 (1.85).
The contrast between the clubs is stark. Sassuolo start the night 17 points better off than their beleaguered guests. Verona have lost 14 of their 25 league tussles and arrive in dire form, going W0-D3-L7 across their last 10 outings, failing to score in six of those showdowns and offering next to nothing in forward areas in presentable recent encounters.
The Gialloblu last five fixtures sum up their trajectory; draws against struggling Cremonese and Pisa, heavy defeats at Cagliari and to Udinese, and a loss at mid-table Parma. Across those five matches Verona have generated an average of just 0.54 xG per-game, numbers that scream relegation. Meanwhile, forward Gift Orban is suspended here.
On their travels this term, Hellas have lost seven of 13, scoring only eight goals and giving up 1.84 per-game. And when we strip out Verona’s fellow basement battlers, we can see the visitors have posted just W1-D4-L14 against teams in 15th and above. Against an organised, confident Sassuolo side, it’s a straightforward selection to oppose the Gialloblu here.
Freiburg remain one of the Bundesliga’s most underappreciated sides and that lack of glamour often shows in the market. Despite displaying exceptional raw numbers and a performance data suite to support, Julian Schuster’s side are often overpriced and that’s the case again on Sunday when the Breisgau-Brasilianer host Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Across all competitions, Freiburg have delivered W11-D3-L0 at their Europa-Park Stadion base this term, avergaing 1.80 goals and keeping six shutouts across their last 10 on home soil. The underlying process backs their exceptional results up with the Black Forest boys ranking fourth on xP and boasting the fourth-best home xG supremacy in the Bundesliga.
That data commands huge respect with Freiburg generating an average of 0.94 xG more than their opponents per-home game. Schuster’s charges have achieved those numbers despite a challenging schedule too; sure, Bayern are yet to visit, but Dortmund and Hoffenheim have already been held here while Stuttgart were beaten.
So the opportunity to support Freiburg at 2.08 stands-out on Sunday, especially with the Breisgau-Brasilianer traditionally excelling against Gladbach. The home side are unbeaten in nine against the Foals, winning three of the last four renewals. Go further back and Freiburg are unbeaten in 17 home matches against the visitors, a run that dates back to 2002.
What’s more, Borussia Mönchengladbach are at a low ebb, sitting just ee points above the relegation play-off place following a run of one win in nine league games, losing five in that spell. A 3-0 defeat at Eintracht Frankfurt last weekend highlighted their current struggles and marked a fifth loss in 11 away Bundesliga games this season.
The goals have dried up for the Foals on the road, with just three scored in their latest six away days. Gladbach are winless against the top-10, have lost five of seven trips to teams in that bracket and if we exclude matches against the bottom-two, the guests have scored just five goals in nine road trips and rank among the lowest Big Chance creators on their travels.
My numbers make Freiburg closer to 4/5 (1.80) in this spot. The market remains unconvinced – but the data strongly suggests the hosts are value at odds-against quotes.
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