Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on La Liga and the Championship this weekend.
Villarreal will look to strengthen their case for a top-four La Liga finish and Champions League qualification when they welcome bang out-of-form Elche to the Estadio de la Cerámica on Sunday. El Submarino Amarillo were well-beaten by Barcelona last weekend yet remain a healthy eight points clear of fifth as we turn for home.
Marcelinho’s men haven proven formidable operators when facing the lesser lights of Spain’s top-flight and command respect as fair short-priced favourites here. Villarreal are W0-D2-L6 when facing-off against top-six rivals, with the Castellón claiming a near flawless W16-D1-L1 against the rest of the division – that includes a W10-D0-L0 return at home.
Exclude runaway leaders Barcelona and Real Madrid and El Submarino Amarillo have racked up multiple goals in 10 of 11 fixtures in front of their own supporters (avergaing 2.64 goals) in that same sample. And having already triumphed 3-1 away at Elche, a similar outcome looks most likely on Sunday. We can back Villarreal to win and Over 1.5 Goals at 1.75.
Newly-promoted Elche enjoyed an excellent opening stanza to the season, posting W3-D4-L0 in their first seven showdowns. However, Los Franjiverdes have slowly slipped down the standings, managing just two La Liga triumphs in their following 19 tussles (W2-D7-L10). Eder Sarabia’s side have also struggled on their travels across the campaign (W0-D4-L8).
Despite their plight, Elche have embraced the challenge of top-flight football, unafraid to mix it with the big boys. Los Franjiverdes have provided plenty of punch, scoring in all bar four of their 26 overall outings – remarkably, only Barcelona, Real Madrid, Real Sociedad and Real Betis boast a better hit-rate for getting on the scoresheet this season.
Elche’s downfall has been based around their rickety rearguard. The strugglers have managed only six clean sheets – none of which have arrived on the road – with Sarabia’s squad shipping multiple goals in seven of 12 away days. The visitors have also conceded at least twice in seven of nine dates this calendar year and a repeat appeals here.
Injury-ravaged QPR have suffered three defeats in their past four Championship contests to slide out of play-off contention and into the bottom-half. Julien Stephan’s side are missing a catalogue of key players which have contributed to the R’s shipping 11 goals in their past four fixtures. Next up is a visit from a rampant, promotion-chasing Middlesbrough side…
Middlesbrough are five points shy of the second-tier summit but only three points above third. The Teessiders have been fantastic fun to follow since Kim Hellberg arrived at The Riverside in late November, with Boro boasting the best points per-game return in that sample (W11-D3-L4), racking up an eye-catching 32 goals in that 18-game sample.
No Championship side has won more points on their travels than Middlesbrough this season (W9-D4-L5) and the visitors hold plenty of appeal as odds-against favourites at Loftus Road on Sunday. Boro have won the Expected Goals (xG) in 14 of those 18 away days, firing in more shots from inside the penalty box than their opposition on 15 occasions.
Recently, Middlesbrough have been away to Birmingham, Stoke and Sheffield United and impressively taken maximum points so a trip to a QPR side with little left to play for and missing top scorer Rumarn Burrell, player of the season Nicolas Madesen and key creator Illias Chair. Rangers have already lost four of six W12 dates with top-seven opposition.
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