Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on La Liga and the Premier League this weekend.
Entertainment is expected in Friday night’s offering from La Liga. Villarreal welcome Real Sociedad to the Estadio de la Cerámica with El Submarino Amarillo now looking like a lock for Champions League qualification – Marcelinho’s hosts are 11 points clear of fifth and will be battling it out with Atletico Madrid for a top-three finish between now and June.
Meanwhile, Real Sociedad arrive as one of the form sides in Spain since the winter break following Pellegrino Matarazzo’s appointment. The American head coach has overseen an excellent W6-D3-L2 in La Liga, guiding the Basques away from the bottom-half and to within touching distance of the top-six, as well as a Copa del Rey final.
La Real’s resurgence and revival under Matarazzo has really caught the eye with Real Sociedad playing a particularly fluid and exciting brand of attacking football – in seven of their last 10 league outings, the visitors have struck at least twice, even notching three goals or more on four occasions with the group averaging 2.00 goals per-game under his watch.
However, clean sheets continue to be an issue for La Real. Across the entirety of the campaign, Real Sociedad have silenced only two of their opponents. Understandably, Both Teams To Score has therefore become commonplace with 18 of the guests’ last 20 La Liga showdowns seeing both sides oblige. A repeat holds plenty of appeal at 3/4 (1.75) here.
The underlying metrics highlight the open nature of Real Sociedad contests – their last 12 tussles are avergaing 3.25 goals and 3.08 Expected Goals (xG), whilst Villarreal will always come out and play in their own backyard. Matches at the Cerámica are averaging 3.07 goals with all bar one of those games delivering at least two goals this term.
Marcelinho’s men have scored at least twice in 11 of 14 home dates – only Real Madrid and Barcelona have thwarted Villarreal here, yet they have conceded in nine of those 14 and come into this clash having seen BTTS bank in seven of their past eight, keeping just two shutouts across their most recent 16 league encounters. This should be fun.
Fulham are scoreless in three, were fortunate not to lose at Nottingham Forest last weekend, and were dumped out of the FA Cup in their previous outing. The Cottagers have been accused of heading for their summer holidays early following those drab recent efforts.
However, there’s still plenty to play for and I’m sure Marco Silva will be doing his best to get the Whites back on track. Fulham start the weekend only four points off Brentford in seventh and a home clash with lowly Burnley could provide the catalyst for a push towards the European places again.
This is a spot the Cottagers do tend enjoy – at home against bottom-half fodder. Fulham have tabled eight triumphs in 11 when hosting sides in sixth and below, as well as taking maximum points in six of eight against the bottom-five. Silva’s side have also scored at least twice in seven of 15 on home soil and now welcome arguably the division’s worst opponent.
Burnley have been beaten in 18 of 30 Premier League games since promotion, including 10 of 15 away from Turf Moor, conceding 1.93 goals per-game (rising to 2.33 on their travels). The Clarets have conceded two strikes or more in 12 of 15 road trips and rank rock-bottom across almost every major metric, conceding the most, creating the fewest.
Scott Parker’s posse have lost the xG battle in 24 of those 30 EPL outings, including 14 of 15 away days, and have generated just 7.08 Expected Points (xP) away. A relatively healthy Fulham side that’s eager to bounce back following a tricky few weeks should be well-capable of clinching top honours here and the price on the home side stands-out.
Fulham are trading at 8/13 (1.62) – Everton were a similar price a fortnight ago and comfortably dispatched Burnley despite enduring issues on home soil. Meanwhile, Crystal Palace, Brighton, Brentford and Bournemouth were all sub 1/2 (1.50) when welcoming the Clarets this term – with that pricing in-mind, I expected the Whites to be shorter here.
Obviously recommending an 8/13 (1.62) is too short for this column but we can back Fulham to win and Over 1.5 Goals at a much more palatable 19/20 (1.96) – we’ll be paid-out by any Fulham victory other than the 1-0. Considering the Clarets are hemorrhaging goals, getting almost even-money on that outcome holds plenty of appeal on Saturday.
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