Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on La Liga and the Championship this weekend.
Real Sociedad have become a regular for this column due to their goal-heavy games across La Liga this season. Only Barcelona’s fixtures have averaged a higher goals per-game output than La Real’s 3.07 with no team in the Spanish top-flight returning a better Both Teams To Score output with an enormous 24/29 (83%) fixtures paying-out.
Despite that exceptional hit-rate, BTTS is still being dangled at eye-catching prices with Real Sociedad’s showdown against relegation-threatened Levante seeing the same selection available to support at 1.85. It’s a straightforward wager to take with La Real striking in 26 of those aforementioned 29 tussles, managing just two clean sheets in that same sample.
Real Sociedad are one of the form sides in Spain since the winter break and Pellegrino Matarazzo’s appointment. The American head coach has overseen an excellent W6-D3-L3 in La Liga, guiding the Basques away from the bottom-half and to within touching distance of the top-six, as well as a Copa del Rey final.
La Real’s resurgence and revival under Matarazzo has really caught the eye with Real Sociedad playing a particularly fluid and exciting brand of attacking football – in seven of their last 11 league outings, the visitors have struck at least twice, even notching three goals or more on four occasions with the group averaging 2.00 goals per-game under his watch.
Matarazzo’s men have seen BTTS pay in 11 of his 12 league tussles, Over 2.5 has clicked in nine of those contests with Over 3.5 even delivering on seven occasions. The underlying metrics highlight the open nature of their contests with those 12 outings avergaing 3.27 Expected Goals (xG) per-game, as well as an average of 5.92 Big Chances per-game.
There’s enough encouragement for lowly Levante to play their part in a goal-heavy game. The visitors have been the seventh-best performing La Liga side since Luis Castro took charge, a run of results that’s seen the Valencian outfit claw their way to within three points of safety. That sample includes a thrilling 4-2 success against Real Oviedo last time out.
Levante are unbeaten in four and have notched in nine of 14 under Castro. Only the current top-four – Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atletico and Villarreal – have kept Los Granotes quiet, as well as Valencia, with those 14 fixtures averaging 2.72 goals. The visitors past 12 have averaged 2.86 xG, again suggesting they can make their mark in an entertaining encounter.
Good Friday’s clash between QPR and Watford promises plenty in the Championship. Rangers are 10 points shy of the play-off positions ahead of the final six fixtures with Julien Stephan’s side consigned to another season of second-tier football, though the Hornets still harbour top-six aspirations with a seven-point deficit to make-up before early May.
Ed Still’s made a reasonable impression since taking over at Watford (W3-D3-L2) with the Hertfordshire outfit showing small signs of progress. The Hornets have been much more fun to follow of late and have managed to get on the scoresheet in seven of Still’s opening nine showdowns, managing only two clean sheets in that same sequence.
It’s three shutouts for Watford since New Year’s Day and only two recorded on the road since the start of the campaign. However, the visitors pack a punch of their own with 13 of those 19 away days delivering profitable Both Teams To Score selections, as have four of their most recent five across all venues, suggesting goals could be on the agenda here.
That argument strengthens significantly when examining QPR’s season, particularly as hosts. Loftus Road is the highest-scoring Championship venue this term, avergaing a hefty 3.47 goals per-game – a massive 15/19 (79%) of those contests produced Over 2.5 Goals with 47% of outings featuring at least four strikes and 14 of those dates seeing both sides score.
With both teams expected to oblige in W12, Over 2.5 Goals has to be considered at a bulbous 2.12 here having already paid-out in 16 of the R’s 18 meetings with fellow top-half teams, including all nine at their West London base. Despite effectively being ‘on the beach’, key QPR attackers are returning and finding form ahead of an end of season flourish.
BTTS is a rock-solid selection here though the leap to 2.12 for Over 2.5 Goals is too big to ignore, especially with the Championship avergaing 2.58 goals per-game and 50% of all matches at this level returning profit for Over 2.5 Goals hunters this season.
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