Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on Ligue 1 and Turkey’s Super Lig this weekend.
Lille are the form team in France right now. Les Dogues have marched into the top-three following a fabulous run of results, posting six Ligue 1 wins in seven, as well as enjoying a nine-game unbeaten streak since the start of February. Bruno Genesio’s group have kept five clean sheets in those nine outings, scoring 11 goals in their most recent four.
Arguably more impressive than Lille’s eye-catching results has been their performance levels against strong opposition. Les Dogues won 2-1 away at Rennes, followed that success up with a 2-1 victory at Marseille before smashing title-challengers and bitter rivals Lens 3-0 in the derby. Last weekend, LOSC hammered Toulouse 4-0 away from home.
Over their last eight games, Lille have averaged a 74% share of Expected Goals (xG) in their games, as well as a +1.12 xG supremacy on a per-game basis – only PSG have outperformed Genesio’s side on Expected Points (xP) and Les Dogues now have a terrific opportunity to enhance their top-three prospects when they welcome a struggling Nice outfit on Saturday.
Nice played out a dreadful 1-1 draw with Le Havre last weekend which leaves Les Aiglons only four points above the relegation play-off position with five fixtures to play – three of which come against top-four opposition, starting here. Considering the visitors have tabled two wins in their past 19 (losing 12), their top-flight status is under serious strain.
On their travels, Nice have been beaten in eight of their previous 10, whilst across the campaign the guests have allowed an average of 1.94 xG on the road (conceding 2.14 goals per-game). In nine of 14 away days, Les Aiglons have leaked multiple goals, including seven of their nine trips to top-11 opposition and so a repeat looks likely here against Lille.
With that in-mind, I’m keen to back Lille -1 on the Asian Handicap at 1.96 – a home win by a one-goal margin would see our stake returned, though a triumph by two strikes or more would pay-out profit and it’s difficult to see Nice capable of containing their hosts here.
Goals could be on the menu on the Turkish Riviera on Friday night as Antalyaspor welcome Konyaspor for a Super Lig showdown that promises plenty. Both sides have been hugely entertaining in their respective home/away fixtures this season and it’s a surprise to therefore see Over 2.5 Goals chalked up as the odds-against outsider here.
Antalyaspor have delivered a league-high 3.71 goals per-game in front of their own supporters with our proposed Over 2.5 Goals poke paying-out in 12 (86%) of their previous 14 fixtures here. The Scorpions have notched in all bar one of those 14 outings but managed to silence their opponents once during the same sample, giving up 31 goals.
That’s led to Both Teams To Score backers collecting in 12 of Antalyaspor’s 14 home encounters with Sami Ugurlu’s hosts also seeing our Over 2.5 Goals angle land in 10 of the last 11 at their Mediterranean base. With the Scorpions still yet to secure top-flight safety, another front-foot performance should be on the agenda from the home side.
Konyaspor arrive in mid-table obscurity without pressure. That should allow Ilhan Palut’s visitors to embrace an open encounter – the Anatolian Eagle arrive having notched in 11 of their opening 14 away days but have also struggled to silence their opposition on the road, yet to keep an away shutout and conceding multiple goals in seven of their past nine.
That combination has led to Over 2.5 Goals clicking on nine (64%) occasions in Konyaspor’s game as guests with 11 (79%) seeing BTTS bank and an average of 3.07 goals per-game across those contests. These lofty figures have largely been backed up by underlying metrics though the market is allowing us the opportunity to support Overs at an odds-against price.
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