Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on the Bundesliga and La Liga this weekend…
We’re down to the final two regular season matchdays in the Bundesliga and that tends to be mean one thing – more goals. The German top-flight is already averaging 3.22 goals per-game this season with 41% of all fixtures featuring Over 3.5 Goals, though history suggest a goals hike in the final fortnight as the campaign reaches a conclusion.
Looking back over the final two matchdays of Bundesliga action across the most recent 10 seasons shows a clear increase in goals compared to the seasonal average. MD35 and MD36 delivered a 0.44 goals per-game increase with Over 2.5 Goals boasting a 69% success-rate, Over 3.5 Goals hitting in 49% of matches and both sides scoring in 68%.
Last weekend’s MD35 definitely didn’t disappoint – seven of eight encounters returned successful Both Teams To Score wagers, whilst five matches overcame the Over 3.5 Goals hurdle. And the best value angle to support another high-scoring shootout looks to be Sunday’s showdown between Koln and rock-bottom Heidenheim.
Heidenheim were denied a famous victory at Bayern Munich last weekend, conceding late on to share the spoils 3-3. It’s now last-chance saloon for Frank Schmidt’s side, who trail both Wolfsburg and St Pauli by three points, though FCH are giving it their best shot – the strugglers have now scored at least twice in seven of their past 10 Bundesliga outings.
More recently, Heidenheim have posted goal tallies of 3-2-1-3-2-3 – notching 3+ goals in three of their last six. Unfortunately for the Baden-Württemberg boys, they’ve remained pretty porous. Sunday’s visitors have managed a solitary shutout all season, leading to a glut of entertaining and high-scoring contests with matches avergaing 3.34 goals per-game.
Heidenheim head to Koln next – the home side are six points above the bottom-three, though their superior goal difference should almost certainly ensure top-flight survival. The Billy Goats have been good fun to follow all season, and recent contests have also captured the imagination with Effzeh involved in the following scores: 2-2, 1-2, 1-1, 3-1, 2-2-, 3-3.
RheinEnergieSTADION contests have proven particularly wild – 14 of 16 Koln home dates have paid for BTTS backers with 75% of those outings also featuring Over 2.5 Goals with a tasty 3.50 goals per-game. With Koln always able to engage their opposition and Heidenheim throwing everything at survival, another high total could come under threat.
Considering the traditional increase in goals output over the final two matchdays, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest Sunday’s match-up could follow those historic trends with Over 3.5 Goals holding plenty of appeal at 2.26.
Alaves have quickly become the punting pal of these Insights columns – last weekend El Glorioso played out a thrilling 4-2 defeat against Athletic Club to land our Both Teams To Score bounty. Though that defeat, coupled with Sevilla’s vital Monday night victory, has plunged Quique Sanchez-Flores’ crew back into the La Liga relegation zone ahead of MD35.
All isn’t yet lost, mind. Alaves are embroiled in a fascinating battle for survival – just three points separate the Basque boys in 18th from Valencia in 12th. It’s incredible tight down there and on Saturday, the Vitoria club travel to fellow scrappers Elche in a key six-pointer.
However, rather than attempt to try and pick a winner, the advice is to continue to follow the goals path as both sides have been routinely involved in entertaining encounters.
Alaves have quickly become one of the division’s most fun sides to follow. A tasty 12 of their past 14 top-flight matches have paid-out for Both Teams To Score backers with the hosts striking at least twice in nine of those recent match-ups. Ten of those tussles covered the Over 2.5 Goals barrier with six of 10 seeing 4+ strikes and four of eight delivering 5+.
Since late January, Alaves’ outings are avergaing a hefty 3.71 goals per-game with the visitors also shipping multiple strikes in nine of 12 lately. Sanchez-Flores has been unable to stem the defensive bleeding with El Glorioso managing only three clean sheets across their 34 La Liga matches thus far.
That’s an issue against an Elche side that’s found form, pocketing four wins in six. The newly-promoted outfit have also managed to net in 29 of 34 overall outings – only Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid and Betis boast a better hit-rate this season. However, the hosts have also managed just two shutouts in 15 since the winter break.
A tasty 13 of Elche’s 17 showdowns this calendar year have covered our proposed Over 2.5 Goals play with 14 of those 17 seeing both sides score – go further back and 11 of 19 have beaten the Over 3.5 Goals barrier, highlighting the potential for goals galore. Despite their perilous positions, a ding-dong six-pointer is anticipated in Alicante.
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