Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire picks out a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on League Two and MLS on Saturday.
Swindon look underestimated by the market ahead of Saturday’s League Two clash with Colchester, and backing the Robins with a +0.25 start on the Asian Handicap makes plenty of appeal at 1.80.
Ian Holloway’s side were hammered 3-0 at Oldham last weekend, but they produced the perfect response by beating Port Vale at the County Ground in midweek. That victory continued an impressive home record stretching back to the start of last season.
Across their last 25 League Two fixtures at their Wiltshire base, Swindon have collected an average of 1.80 points per-game, winning 13 and losing only six. Town were also sitting as high as second in the division as recently as February before their campaign unravelled, so there is enough evidence to suggest there is still a high ceiling surrounding the side.
Seven points from their opening four matches hardly represents a disastrous start either, while some encouraging late transfer business should strengthen Holloway’s options. Forward Antwoine Hackford has arrived from Wimbledon and Dan Butler has joined on-loan from Stevenage, while last season’s leading scorer Aaron Drinan has signed a new contract.
The market appears considerably more enthusiastic about Colchester, but their identical seven-point return arguably deserves closer inspection.
Danny Cowley’s men required a controversial late equaliser at Accrington before a 94th-minute own goal secured victory against 10-man Oldham. They then edged Rochdale 1-0, only to be deservedly beaten at Bristol Rovers in midweek. Even Cowley admitted before that defeat that their early points return had exceeded expectations.
Saturday’s scheduling provides another small advantage for Swindon. The Robins are playing consecutive home fixtures during this two-game week, whereas Colchester face back-to-back away trips. That is particularly interesting given the respective records of these teams.
While Swindon have won 13 and lost six of their last 25 League Two home matches, Colchester have managed eight victories and suffered 10 defeats across their corresponding 25 away fixtures. The U’s also lost important players including Kyreece Lisbie and Arthur Read during the summer, and there appears little justification for such a sizeable gap between these teams in the betting.
With the +0.25 Asian Handicap providing a half-win if the match finishes level and a full payout if Swindon win, I’m keen to support the hosts as underdogs here.
Goals look the obvious angle when Toronto host Chicago Fire this weekend in MLS, with Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals at 1.80 appealing given the attacking and defensive numbers these two sides have produced.
Toronto’s home matches have been particularly entertaining. The hosts are averaging 1.92 goals per-game in front of their own supporters but Les Rouges are also conceding at exactly the same rate, resulting in a huge average of 3.83 total goals per home fixture.
That combination makes them an ideal side for the goals markets. Robin Fraser’s charges have found the net in 19 of their 22 MLS matches this season, while clean sheets have been a rarity, with just three recorded across that same sample.
Most importantly, however, both teams have scored in all 12 of Toronto’s home matches. Eight of those 12 have also cleared the Over 2.5 Goals line, while five have produced at least five goals.
Chicago arrive with a remarkably similar profile. The visitors average 1.73 goals scored and 1.53 conceded on their travels, meaning their away fixtures are producing 3.27 goals per-game. The Fire have scored in 21 of 22 overall, so there is little reason to expect them to struggle against a Toronto defence that has regularly given opponents opportunities.
Keeping Toronto quiet could prove considerably more difficult. Chicago have managed only two clean sheets across 11 away days, with nine of those fixtures seeing both teams find the net. Eight have produced Over 2.5 Goals and five have even gone beyond the 3.5 mark, illustrating just how open their games often become.
There is also nothing unusual about seeing these sorts of numbers in MLS. The competition itself is averaging 3.20 goals this season, with 62% of matches producing Over 2.5 Goals and 63% seeing both teams score. This fixture brings together two teams sitting towards the more extreme end of that already goal-friendly environment.
With that in mind, combining Both Teams to Score with Over 2.5 Goals at 1.80 looks a strong way to approach what should be an enjoyable and open contest.
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