Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire picks out a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on the Championship and League One this weekend.
Starting in the Championship this weekend, Swansea look undervalued in the market, and I’m more than happy to back the Swans +0.0 on the Asian Handicap at 1.79 against Norwich.
There’s plenty to like about Vitor Matos’ side, particularly at home, where they’ve been remarkably reliable since the Portuguese coach took charge.
Swansea’s record at the Swansea.com Stadium under Matos reads W11-D5-L3, with the Welsh outfit scoring in 16 of those 19 fixtures and keeping nine clean sheets. They’ve also taken eight points from their opening four home games this season (W2-D2-L0), conceding just once. That’s an excellent platform for a bet where a draw simply returns our stake.
The wider numbers are equally encouraging. Swansea have collected 17 points from eight Championship games to sit top of the table, with arguably the most impressive defensive statistics in the division.
The Swans are conceding just 0.75 goals per game, the lowest rate in the Championship, while also allowing the fewest shots on target (2.75 per game), opposition touches inside their penalty area (18.4) and expected goals on target conceded (0.85).
Norwich, meanwhile, have been considerably less convincing. Philippe Clement’s side have conceded in all eight league games, shipping 17 goals at a rate of 2.12 per match. That’s the second-worst defensive record in the Championship, and their underlying numbers offer little reassurance.
The Canaries have also lost three of their four away fixtures, conceding nine times, including three at Millwall and four at Middlesbrough.
Crucially, the visitors are without leading scorer Mohamed Touré and captain Kenny McLean. That’s a significant amount of quality missing from a side already struggling for consistency. Chuck in Swansea’s defensive organisation alongside Norwich’s vulnerabilities and 1.79 on Swansea +0.0 look generous, particularly with the draw offering a safety net.
Dropping down into League One this weekend, I’m backing Both Teams To Score and Under 4.5 Goals in Cambridge versus Blackpool at the Abbey Stadium, with the combination available at an appealing 2.05. The early-season numbers make a compelling case.
I’ll keep the headline figures simple. Cambridge have scored in all eight league games since promotion, but they’ve also conceded in every single one. That’s a 100% hit-rate for BTTS backers, with seven of those eight fixtures also featuring fewer than five goals.
Blackpool are following a remarkably similar pattern. The Seasiders have scored in all seven league outings, conceding in six, while six of their seven matches have also finished Under 4.5 Goals. Our combined selection has therefore landed in seven of Cambridge’s eight games and six of Blackpool’s seven.
But there’s more to like than simply the results. Cambridge’s matches are averaging 2.61 non-penalty expected goals (npxG) and four big chances per game, suggesting there’s enough attacking activity at both ends to sustain the trend.
Blackpool’s figures are even more eye-catching, with their fixtures producing a whopping 3.95 npxG and seven big chances per game. And it’s Ian Evatt’s side who really strengthen the argument.
The Tangerines are scoring 1.86 goals per game, the fourth-best return in League One, but their defensive numbers are alarming. They’re allowing a division-high 19 shots and five big chances per game, while their 2.34 expected goals against (xGA) is also the worst figure in the league.
Blackpool’s away performances are particularly concerning, with opponents generating 3.16 xG per game across their three road trips. That should offer plenty of encouragement to a Cambridge attack that’s already scored 13 times this season.
The U’s aren’t exactly watertight themselves, conceding 11 goals in eight games, and Blackpool have enough attacking quality to exploit those vulnerabilities.
The beauty of this combination is that we don’t need a goalfest to collect. A competitive contest with both sides finding the net will do nicely, provided things don’t get completely out of hand. Scores such as 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 and 2-2 all get the job done.
With the selection landing in 13 of the clubs’ combined 15 league fixtures, and the underlying numbers supporting another lively encounter, I’m happy to take the 2.05 on offer.
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