Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire picks out a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on Ligue 1 this weekend.
I’m heading to France on Friday night, where newly-promoted Le Mans welcome Toulouse in a fixture that has all the ingredients for a hugely entertaining encounter.
My goal expectancy for the game sits at 3.15, and it’s easy to see why. These sides have collectively played 12 Ligue 1 matches this season, with Over 2.5 Goals landing in nine and BTTS banking in 10. Both are playing bold, front-foot football, and neither has kept a clean sheet.
Le Mans have been a breath of fresh air since promotion. Patrick Videira deserves enormous credit for instilling such a fearless mentality, with his side refusing to compromise their attacking instincts regardless of the opposition.
Les Mucistes went toe-to-toe with PSG last weekend before the champions’ second-half reinforcements proved decisive. Having already faced Lens, Rennes, Lorient and PSG, they’ve hardly looked out of place, scoring in every game and netting at least twice in four of six.
Le Mans’ matches have featured 22 goals in six outings, with BTTS landing every time. They’ve also been particularly entertaining at home, remaining unbeaten across three matches that have produced 11 goals.
And Toulouse look like ideal dance partners. New boss Jens Berthel Askou has introduced a similarly adventurous approach, with his side striking seven times in three games, including an excellent 2-2 draw at Monaco last weekend, where they showed no interest in sitting back.
The underlying numbers are equally encouraging. Toulouse’s matches average 3.62 xG, while they’re generating the fourth-most expected goals in Ligue 1. TFC have scored multiple goals in four of their last five, but defensive vulnerabilities remain obvious, conceding at least twice in five of six.
Perhaps most appealingly, all three Toulouse away games have finished 2-2. That’s 12 goals across three road trips, and another open contest looks firmly on the cards.
With both managers committed to attacking football and neither defence inspiring much confidence, I’m expecting chances at both ends. Rather than simply backing BTTS, I like combining it with Under 4.5 Goals at 21/20 (2.05). That brings the 1-1, 2-2, 2-1 and 3-1 scorelines either way into play.
We’re heading to Brittany on Sunday, where league leaders Monaco face an awkward assignment against a Lorient side who have made a habit of upsetting the odds on home soil.
Monaco have been touted as PSG’s biggest title challengers, and it’s easy to understand why. Filipe Luís has overseen an unbeaten six-game start, collecting 14 points and impressive victories over PSG, Lens and Marseille.
His 4-4-2 system is functioning beautifully, boasting arguably the division’s strongest central midfield partnership outside Paris, with plenty of attacking talent capable of making the difference. But this looks a tougher test than the market suggests.
Lorient have turned their artificial pitch into something of a fortress, losing just four of their last 20 home league fixtures. More impressively, they’ve posted W6-D3-L1 when welcoming top-half opposition during that sequence. Les Merlus consistently raise their game against stronger opponents, making a habit of rewarding those willing to support them as underdogs.
And Sunday’s scheduling only strengthens their appeal. Monaco are in Sofia for Europa Conference League duty on Thursday evening, before facing a lengthy, awkward journey to north-west France on a quick turnaround. Hardly ideal preparation for visiting one of Ligue 1’s trickier venues.
Lorient are still finding their feet under Alexandre Dujeux, who worked wonders at Angers before arriving in the summer. But there’s growing encouragement following a difficult start, with Les Merlus posting W2-D1-L1 across their last four to climb into the top half.
Last weekend’s eye-catching home victory over previously-unbeaten Paris FC was another statement of intent, and they’ll fancy their chances against opponents they beat twice last season, including a 3-1 success here.
The broader home numbers are difficult to ignore. Lorient have scored in 19 of their last 20 league matches on their own patch, averaging 1.75 goals per game. They’ve also kept three clean sheets in six outings this term, suggesting there’s a decent defensive foundation to build upon.
Monaco undoubtedly possess greater individual quality, but Thursday’s European exertions, Sunday’s awkward surroundings and Lorient’s outstanding home record make this an appealing handicap opportunity. At 5/6 (1.83), I’m more than happy to have the home underdogs onside with a half-goal start.
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