Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire picks out a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on Spain this weekend.
There’s never a bad time for El Clásico, but Sunday’s showdown at Camp Nou feels particularly significant. Barcelona are chasing a historic tenth consecutive La Liga victory, Real Madrid are already six points adrift, and the pressure on José Mourinho is mounting.
And despite Barcelona suffering their first defeat of the season at PSG on Tuesday, I’m backing the Catalans to bounce straight back with another statement victory. Hansi Flick’s side were deservedly beaten in Paris, but there was clearly one eye on this fixture, with Rodri rested and several key players managed carefully.
Domestically, Barcelona have been virtually unstoppable. Nine wins from nine, an astonishing 39 goals scored, and the opportunity to equal the best-ever start to a La Liga campaign by making it 10 consecutive victories. But I still wouldn’t trust the Blaugrana to keep a clean sheet.
Injuries have left Barcelona vulnerable defensively, and their aggressive pressing system, combined with that notoriously high defensive line, offers opportunities for opponents with genuine pace. Vinícius Júnior is suspended, but Kylian Mbappé remains a formidable threat, and Madrid should have chances to exploit the space behind Barcelona’s defence.
The numbers certainly support goals at both ends. Both Teams to Score has landed in eight of Barcelona’s last 10 matches, while seven of their nine league victories have come alongside a goal conceded. Even Racing Santander, Rayo Vallecano and Feyenoord have found the net at the Camp Nou this season.
But Madrid have significant problems of their own. Thibaut Courtois has already faced 37 shots, his highest tally at this stage of a season for Los Blancos, conceding nine goals. Their midfield still lacks control, defensive protection remains questionable, and there’s an obvious vulnerability down their left flank.
Atletico exploited that weakness, and it’s particularly concerning here because that’s precisely where Lamine Yamal operates. Unless Mourinho makes significant tactical adjustments, Yamal could have an absolute field day.
Barcelona have won five of the last seven Clásicos, with both teams scoring in five of those encounters. Madrid possess enough individual quality to contribute, but Barcelona’s attacking cohesion, home advantage and relentless goalscoring form make them deserved odds-on favourites. Include the BTTS option and we’re offered a much more palatable 2.24.
We’re going against goals in Spain’s Segunda División on Saturday, where a desperately out-of-form Leganés side host one of the division’s most impressive defensive outfits in Mallorca. And when you dig into the numbers, it’s difficult to see where the home side’s goals are coming from.
After an encouraging start to the campaign, Leganés have completely lost their way, suffering five defeats in their last six matches. More concerning still, they’ve failed to score in six of their last seven league fixtures and managed just six goals across 10 games this term. And this isn’t simply a case of poor finishing…
Leganés rank in the bottom four for virtually every attacking metric worth monitoring, including expected points, non-penalty expected goals, shots, shots on target and big chances created. They’re offering next to nothing in the final third, and now face a Mallorca side whose defensive numbers are frankly outstanding.
The visitors sit sixth with a W5-D3-L2 record, but it’s their defensive solidity that’s really caught the eye. Just five goals conceded in 10 matches, six clean sheets, including three in five away fixtures, and top-three rankings across the division for shots, shots on target, shots inside the box and big chances conceded.
And those five goals conceded actually flatter their opponents. One was a penalty, another an own goal, meaning opposition players have scored just three goals from open play against Mallorca all season. That’s an extraordinary record heading into a meeting with one of the weakest attacks in the Segunda.
Both Teams to Score – No has landed in eight of Leganés’ 10 matches and eight of Mallorca’s 10, giving us a combined 16 winners from 20 fixtures. I considered keeping Mallorca onside in some way or form but the 1.80 available on opposing both sides obliging looks the cleaner and more appealing value angle considering the data at-hand.
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