Adam Chernoff has spotted a significant mismatch in the Broncos vs Bills and is betting accordingly!
Incredibly, it was another split for the column last week with Buffalo covering easily and Philadelphia falling short. The record on the season for readers moves to 7-9 (-2.45x). This week there is plenty of opportunities to get into positive figures.
Well Rounded Handicap
If you listen to the Matchbook Betting Podcast, you will be familiar with the Jared Goff handicapping checklist.
- Is he on the road?
- Will he be under pressure?
- Is he laying points?
I think it is probably time that we make a Josh Allen handicapping checklist.
- Is he facing a top 20 pass rush?
- Is he facing a top 20 secondary?
- Is he laying points?
In this game, the answer is yes to all three, and naturally, that makes the opponent look appealing.
All jokes aside, it is important to build the handicap out and look at all sides of the picture.
Let’s put some context to those numbers.
Josh Allen under pressure has an adjusted completion percentage of 57% (28th), a passer rating of 54.4 and 4 INTs to 3 TD’s in comparison. Those numbers are a significant step down from his clean pocket metrics of 78% adjusted completion percentage (19th), a passer rating of 97.7 and 5 TD’s to 0 INTs.
Pressure is an issue.
This season Josh Allen has faced seven teams that rank 21st or worse in the NFL for passing efficiency defense. He has a 98.8 passer rating, 11 TD’s to 4 INT’s and 7.7 yards per attempt in those games. In three games against opponents that rank 20th or better he has a passer rating of 59.0, 2 TD’s to 3 INT’s and 5.6 yards per attempt. The better the secondary, the more he struggles.
The matchup this week for Allen, in turn, looks to be extremely problematic.
The Broncos are 14th in pass efficiency defense, 11th in passing success rate defense, 7th in adjusted defensive line yards, 12th in adjusted sack rate and 9th in defensive DVOA. To date those numbers have been validated against the 4th most difficult schedule of opposing passers and 12th most difficult schedule of opposing rushers.
In terms of offensive efficiency, the Bills at 23rd are the easiest opponent the Broncos have faced since Week 2 against the Bears, a game which Denver limited them to 16 points. The Broncos held the other two teams that were ranked 20th or worse (TEN and CLE) to 0 and 19 points respectively.
In terms of pass efficiency offense, the Bills at 24th are the easiest opponent the Broncos have faced this entire season. The Broncos faced three other teams that rank 20th or worse (CHI, IND, CLE) and held them to 16, 15 and 19 points.
This is a phenomenal matchup spot for the Denver Broncos Defense
What About the Offense?
The Broncos passing offense has been horrific, ranking 31st since Brandon Allen took over. However, their running game is 8th in rush success rate and 10th in rushing efficiency offense. This season the Bills defense has faced the third easiest schedule of opposing rush offenses but rank 14th in rush defense success rate and dead last in explosive runs against.
Only two of the Bills opponents (PHI and CLE) have ranked 15th or better for rush efficiency offense and those games make up two of the three losses for the Bills on the season. The Eagles ran 41 times for 5.3 yards per carry and 218 yards. The Browns ran 26 times for 5.7 yards per carry and 147 yards. Considering how well the Broncos run the ball, it can be expected that this is another fantastic matchup for the Broncos in this game.
The narrative for much of the season has been Fangio stirring up trouble with his old-fashioned coaching style. But the big news this week came after the Vikings game when Von Miller rallied the team together with an outing. The comments from all players attending on the roster were extremely positive.
Whether this is the players rallying against the coaching staff, actually playing to save the season or just playing for future contracts the fact remains that the Broncos have been competitive in each loss this season. Denver led CHI with 0:30 to play, led JAX 17:6 at the half, had a drive to tie GB on the road in the 4Q, led IND with the ball at the 2 min warning and led MIN 20-0 at the half.
Now the team is catching five points with a favourable matchup on both sides of the ball the question becomes how high is too high a point spread? Looking at major metrics, the Broncos rank better than the Bills in many key spots. In DVOA, DEN is 16th vs BUF 24th, in overall PFF grade DEN is 8th, BUF is 14th, in NetYPP BUF is 8th and DEN is 11th, in my ratings, both teams are a 50.
There was no adjustment on the look ahead to the reopen despite the 17-point win for Buffalo and four-point loss for Denver, and rightfully so.
Many things line up here from all angles and I am very content in a Broncos ticket in this spot.
This is well deserving of double bet number three this season.
- Denver Broncos +4.5 (1.84). Risking 2.00x