In more ways than one, it’s the most wonderful time of the year. It’s Finals week in the College Football world and it’s all to play for as the cream is set to rise to the top ahead of New Year’s Day 4 team playoff. Two weeks ago I hit 2 out of 3 with my lock of the week Missouri -7.5 cruising to an easy win over a terrible Vanderbilt unit. This week I’m keying in on the SEC Title game.
The shrewdest bettors in the game will tell you to avoid recency bias and judge each game as a blank page. I’d like to think that I narrowly qualify for this bracket but this game will push my resolve to its limit. In recent weeks I’ve jumped head first onto the Auburn Bandwagon and I’m reluctant to disembark anytime soon. Last weeks impressive 26-14 win over their bitter rivals Alabama adds further fuel to the widespread view that no team is hotter than the Auburn Tigers right now.
Three weeks ago Auburn crushed then no.1 Georgia 40-17 keeping in check a potent Bulldogs rushing attack. Up to this point, Georgia averaged 265 yards a game on the ground but Auburn D came up big to hold Nick Chubb and Sony Michel for a combined 46 yards. Auburn DC Kevin Steele gambled on Georgia Freshman QB Jake Fromm being able to carry this Bulldog Offense and was duly proved right.
All Auburn eyes will be on QB Jarrett Stidham on Saturday night.
Yes, Georgia has the motivational factor of revenge in their armoury but how much can revenge carry this side? Has their Offensive Line improved sufficiently to take the burden off Fromm and create some holes for their running game? Auburn are exceptionally deep in their front 7 and can rotate some star-studded D-Line men to keep things fresh when needed.
Following a slow start, Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham has been lights out in recent weeks and displayed his class in full pomp carving open Alabama’s vaunted Defense last weekend. Tigers RB Kerryon Johnson is an injury doubt here but all indications are that he will suit up in Atlanta. Yes, Johnson will not be 100% but one suspects he has not been at peak condition for a few weeks now but still has got the job done.
Market Movement
Auburn opened as a 3 point favourite late Saturday night / early Sunday morning. I fully expected this number to head north to the 4 / 4.5 regions but the uncertainty over Kerryon Johnson led to plenty of buyback from Georgia Backers. At the time of writing, this number has settled at a flat 2 and may head back to a field goal when Kerryon Johnson is confirmed to start.
With two top quality Defenses on show, it is perhaps of little surprise that a 50+ total quickly got hammered down by plenty of early sharp action. At the time of writing the total has dropped a field goal + to 47.5. Key number backers will be loving this number if they’re any way inclined to play the Over this week. The total has gone OVER in 5 of Georgia’s last 7 games while it has also cashed in 7 of Auburn’s last 9 games.
My SEC Championship Game Picks
