Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share his favourite fancies from the weekend’s European action with Italy taking centre-stage.
Goal-Frenzy Forecast At Crotone
Serie A continues to be Europe’s flagship major league for goals with the relentless 2020/21 campaign delivering a hefty 3.03 goals-per-game on average. A tasty 59% of those showdowns have produced Over 2.5 Goals, suggesting blanket odds on a repeat would be around the 1.69 mark.
So naturally, I’m interested when 1.80 is offered in an encounter featuring Serie A’s chief protagonist in terms of goals-per-game, as well as successful Over 2.5 Goals wagers.
That title is taken by rock-bottom Crotone, with the newly-promoted side often on the wrong end of matches that have averaged a sizeable 3.59 per-game, 74% crossing the Over 2.5 barrier. Indeed, almost half of the Pitagorici’s contests have seen a minimum of four goals scored, whilst nine of their 13 Stadio Ezio Scida outings have seen this bet collect.
The newly-promoted outfit have little chance of survival but have still shown an appetite to fight for their top-flight credentials.
Last weekend’s unfortunate 3-2 reverse at Lazio encapsulated their season with a late goal going against Serse Cosmi’s charges but they’ve proven well capable of hurting opposition defences with their carefree attacking approach.
The hosts’ last match-up at the Ezio Scida ended in a 4-2 Crotone victory, the third occasion in six the Pitagorici have plundered at least four goals when entertaining bottom-half sides (W4-D0-L2) and so Saturday’s showdown has a feeling of the last-chance saloon as the Calabria club look for a final shot at reaching safety.
Unfortunately, Crotone’s downfall has been at the back.
The strugglers have silenced only two opponents and shipped multiple goals in 13 of their past 15 fixtures across all venues, and I don’t expect the hosts to be capable of keeping a Bologna side – that’s scored in 16 of their most recent 20 Serie A tussles – quiet either.
Therefore, the duo should serve up a watchable affair with goals prominent.
My numbers make the price of Over 2.5 Goals closer to the 1.70 mark, so I’ll happily take the 1.80 on offer ahead of Saturday’s showdown.
Samp & Torino To Serve Up A Feast
Torino boss Davide Nicola hopes the comeback from 2-0 down to beat Sassuolo 3-2 on Wednesday afternoon can give Torino confidence. The Granata supremo saw his side trailing by two until the 76th minute when a Simone Zaza double and Rolando Mandragora strike pinched an unlikely three points and a first home victory of the season in Turin.
With Torino toiling and their stay in the bottom-three seemingly extending, Nicola threw caution to the wind, throwing on all his available attacking options from the bench.
The Granata boss has suggested he’d be willing to continue that offensive approach again when necessary, starting with Sunday’s trip to Sampdoria.
Goals have been prominent in both Samp and Torino’s tussles this term.
Collectively, the two teams have surpassed the Over 2.5 Goals mark in 34/53 (63%) of Serie A games this term. However, that figure enhances to a huge 19/26 (73%) when looking purely at the pairs home and away returns (both sides also scoring in 19 of that same sample of matches).
With such high goal figures, plus an underlying process to match, it’s surprising to find Over 2.5 Goals trading at odds-against quotes of 2.05.
The reverse ended in an enjoyable 2-2 draw and a similar outcome is entirely plausible in what should again prove to be an entertaining encounter from the Marassi.
- Over 2.5 Goals in Crotone vs Bologna 2 units @ 1.80
- Over 2.5 Goals in Sampdoria vs Torino 2 units @ 2.05
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