It’s been a great few weeks for us on EFL Insights, with back-to-back clean sweeps taking us to a win rate of 66% on the season so far. Regular readers will know I love a Championship ‘Under’, so no big surprise in my first selection, but for part two of this column, I have gone rogue by backing goals in League 2! Read on to find out more…
City Ground Thrillers Are Few And Far Between
Chris Hughton has expertly steered Nottingham Forest away from trouble at the foot of the Championship but is his team beginning to excite people? No. Not in the slightest.
Despite their gratitude to the division’s archetypal ‘safe hands’ boss, even the most ardent fans of the two-time European champions would surely confess they are not a lot of fun to watch at the moment.
Across the last 10 matches, Forest have scored eight and conceded eight. Over the course of a largely uninspiring campaign, just 22% of their games have witnessed more than two goals, a stat that tells you plenty, and there’s more…
At the City Ground, such a wonderful old stadium packed with amazing memories, Hughton’s men have scored more than once in just five of 20 fixtures so far.
You get the picture.
It will probably end 5-5 now, but I have to say Forest’s clash at home to Huddersfield Town this weekend has ‘instantly forgettable’ written all over it.
The Terriers are inching to safety point by scrappy point under Carlos Corberan, and they are struggling badly inside the final third. Short on firepower across their last 10 appearances, Huddersfield have found the back of the net just five times.
Six of their last eight in the Championship have also dipped under the 2.5 goals mark, so even though Norwich spanked them by seven last month, they are generally a pretty tight unit.
While I think Nottingham Forest are clear favourites at 2.08, they have thrown too many draws into the works for me to have full confidence in them.
Corberan’s boys have beaten Watford, and they did the double over Swansea City, so on their day, the visitors are dangerous, but again nothing suggests they are worth supporting at 4.05.
For me, it has to be a goals angle, and I’m on board with this contest finishing with Under 2.0/2.5 goals on the Asian Handicap.
A price of 1.78 reflects all I’ve discussed, but if this match-up is anything other than dreary, it will be a colossal surprise.
The Terriers are nervy, and Forest are naturally cautious. This should be a dour affair.
Oldham’s Trip To Morecambe May Lack Glamour, But There Should Be Goals
The minnows of Morecambe have come a long way since being battered 5-0 by Cambridge United in their first home game of the season. Since then, playing a really positive brand of football The Shrimps have racked up 32 goals at the Mazuma Stadium, the second-highest tally of home goals in League 2.
Picking up 38 points along the way, they also share the joint best home record. It is little wonder then that Derek Adams’ over-achievers are currently gunning for promotion to English football’s third tier for the first time in their history.
Victory against mid-table Oldham Athletic on Saturday lunchtime won’t secure their involvement at the end of season jamboree, but they will be as good as there.
It should be an absolute belter.
First under Harry Kewell, and now Keith Curle, the Latics love a free-for-all on the road!
They may sit in 16th place, but no one has scored more times away from home than Oldham (34), who appear to get a kick out of going toe to toe with host teams.
They have calmed down a bit under new management, it should be said, but a 4-1 success at Crawley Town last week suggests they are not done with away day fun just yet. With no pressure on them this weekend, I would expect the likes of Conor McAleny and David Keillor-Dunn to be nice and lively.
There is no such thing as a cert, but the stats could not be any stronger when backing a goals angle.
Morecambe have only failed to score in two of 20 home matches.
A whopping 65% of Oldham’s away games have seen over 2.5 goals, with 70% seeing BTTS land.
Overall during 2020-21, Oldham and Morcambe are ranked one and two for being involved in the most games involving Over 2.5 goals and BTTS.
There’s always a chance Morecambe might tighten up at the business end but there were no signs of that when beating Scunthorpe United 3-2 in midweek.
Carlos Mendes Gomes (13 goals) and Cole Stockton (9 goals) are the men in form, and they will surely relish a date with opponents who have leaked 68 goals in 41 outings.
Oldham have the worst defence in the division with something to spare.
There are two ways of looking at this from a betting perspective. You can take Over 2.5 goals at 1.97 or go with Both Teams To Score’s slightly safer call, which will come in at a guide price of around 1.8 with Matchbook ahead of kick-off.
My choice is over 2.5, but it’s a flip of the coin.
Everything points to an entertaining affair on the Lancashire coast.
- Nottingham Forest v Huddersfield Town Under 2.0/2.5 (1.78)
- Morecambe v Oldham Athletic over 2.5 (1.97)
Subscribe to the Matchbook Betting Podcast here
Subscribe to the Matchbook Youtube channel here