32 EFL winners from 48 EFL selections (+67%) on the season for Adrian Clarke, and he’s aiming to finish in some style!
I’m not sure where the time has gone, but we’ve already arrived at the final weekend of the EFL season, and I think it’s only fitting that we go for a couple more picks from the ‘Unders’ market that’s been so kind to us throughout 2020-21! We start with a Championship dead rubber….
PREDICTING A LOW KEY END OF SEASON CLASH AT VICARAGE ROAD
Watford’s final match in the second tier before returning to The Promised Land has absolutely nothing on it.
The Hornets can’t finish anywhere other than in the runners-up spot, and their opponents Swansea City are already into the playoffs. No result on Saturday afternoon can affect who they meet there either.
Could it be a crazy end of season jamboree?
In theory, yes, but Watford and Swansea don’t strike me as the type to change their habits for the sake of an end of season goal-fest.
My inkling here is that this will be the tamest of tame affairs, a match both sets of players will just want to negotiate unscathed.
Contests at Vicarage Road have largely gone in Watford’s favour (they have won 18 of 22 contests), but not too many will live that long in the memory.
Nine of Watford’s ten results on their own patch against sides currently sitting in the top half have featured two goals or less.
Xisco Munoz’s men have been incredibly solid but rarely do they voluntarily unlock those floodgates.
They are a team that likes to do just enough.
Steve Cooper’s Swans will make changes, I’m sure, but nobody wants to go into the playoffs on the wrong end of a humbling defeat. Therefore I anticipate them trying to keep standards high.
They will definitely chase a confidence-enhancing clean sheet, and that’s very much achievable.
Norwich City and Watford are the only Championship clubs to have conceded fewer goals than Swansea, and 68% of their games on the road have featured Under 2.5 goals.
Cooper’s promotion chasers will want the point they need to require home advantage in the second leg of the play-off semi-final, but I don’t expect them to run through brick walls to chase a win.
It feels like the deadest of dead rubbers.
All things considered, I have to look at Under 2.5 goals here at a price of 1.79.
The Championship ‘Unders’ have been kind to us this term, so here’s hoping that another one lands…
STEVENAGE TO GO LOW AGAIN ON THE FINAL DAY
Every now and then a certain match-up leaps off the page and screams, dullness!
Scunthorpe United’s final day encounter with Stevenage is definitely one of those.
With nothing but pride to play for, the trends could be tipped upside down, of course – so don’t go too crazy on it – but everything about the formbook suggests this will be a low scoring affair.
Scunthorpe have been dreadful of late, just about scraping their way to 48 points which ensures they live to fight another day in the EFL. Neil Cox’s men have found goals really hard to come by, drawing blanks in five of their last eight home matches at Glanford Park.
All those fixtures featured two goals or less, which has been a running theme all season.
Just 27% of games at their own stadium have featured over 2.5 goals which is the lowest percentage in League 2.
When you put that stat on the table and then throw Stevenage into the mix, our selection seems really obvious!
My former club have fought back superbly from a dodgy start to finish mid-table, and the bedrock of their revival has been solidity at the back.
OK, they drew 3-3 with Crawley Town last weekend, but that kind of result is very much not the norm.
Stevenage away games average a meagre 1.59 goals a game.
That is the lowest in the division by far, with just 27% of their fixtures on the road seeing more than two goals.
Alex Revell’s battlers love a low scoring affair. In fact, nine of their last ten away matches have seen a maximum of one goal scored.
There are compelling arguments from both sides of the fence to suggest this will be tight, so it’s Under 2.0/2.5 goals on the Asian Handicap that appeals most to me.
It’s available on Matchbook at 1.85.
- Watford v Swansea City Under 2.5 goals (1.79)
- Scunthorpe United v Stevenage Under 2.0/2.5 goals on Asian Handicap (1.85)
Subscribe to the Matchbook Betting Podcast here
Subscribe to the Matchbook Youtube channel here