Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share his favourite fancies from the weekend’s European action with Spain and France taking centre-stage.
SEVILLA TO SHINE IN ANDALUSIA ENCOUNTER
Sevilla’s outside chance of a shock La Liga title remains possible after Los Nervionenses recorded an excellent 1-0 victory at Levante on Wednesday evening. In-form Youssef En-Nesyri scored the decisive goal soon after the interval to settle a feisty fixture and kept Julen Lopetegui’s team hanging onto the coattails of Spain’s Big Three.
The former national team coach has now guided his group to three successive away victories, making it a remarkable 19 triumphs from their past 27 La Liga outings dating back to the beginning of November.
If title aspirations are to be realised, the Andalusian giants will now know back-to-back outings at the Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan are key.
First up on Sunday is regional rivals Granada and I’m anticipating a straightforward home success.
The visitors have enjoyed a memorable campaign that involved a historic run to the Europa League quarter-finals. Still, the Nazaríes are now in no man’s territory and often produce their best work at their Los Carmenes base.
Diego Martinez’s men have been turned over in nine of 15 away days and posted W0-D3-L7 when travelling to teams outside the bottom six.
Results fall in line with Granada’s poor performance data returns, too, with the Nazaríes ranked third-bottom for Expected Goals (xG) ratio on the road, as well as bottom-six positions for shots and on-target attempts.
A trip to Sevilla could prove a tall order.
A traditionally strong battleground, Sevilla have tabled 11 victories in 15 at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan, including 10 wins from 13 when you exclude the Big Three at the top of the table.
In fact, Los Nervionenses have posted 20 triumphs from 27 across all venues when you take the league’s elite out of the equation.
Sevilla have shipped only nine goals in 15 home fixtures and should be well capable of securing top honours.
With the handicaps already tight, and Sevilla not completely renowned for running up big scorelines, a smarter selection could be to support Sevilla to succeed alongside Under 3.5 Goals at an appetising 2.15.
Only two of Los Nervionenses’ home outings have breached the 3.5 Goals line, with 11 of those 15 encounters featuring a maximum of three goals.
With 16 of their overall 20 La Liga wins arriving alongside Under 3.5 Goals, the odds-against option appears our best value angle of attack for Sunday evening’s encounter.
MONACO TO EXPOSE RUDDERLESS ANGERS
Monaco are two points off the summit in Ligue 1, and the principality club can enhance their unexpected title prospects by producing another winning performance when travelling to Angers on Sunday.
Les Monégasques have registered maximum points in 14 of their most recent 18 league matches, winning their most recent four by an aggregate 14-0.
Niko Kovac’s charges were 2-0 victors at Lyon on Wednesday night in the Coupe de France quarter-finals, meaning ASM have now turned over PSG, Lyon and Marseille by two-goal margins since Christmas, whilst also holding table-toppers Lille to a goalless draw.
Nine of Monaco’s 14 triumphs during their aforementioned streak were secured by more than a single strike, and Kovac’s outfit come into this contest, having shipped a solitary goal in 11 league and cup contests.
Both the eyes and data test show ASM are excelling in both boxes during their wonderful 2021 run.
The same can’t be said for Angers.
Ligue 1’s longest-serving coach Stephane Moulin announced he’d be departing the club after 10 years in May. Les Noirs et Blancs have been unable to rally themselves after securing mid-table safety.
Thumped 5-0 by PSG in Wednesday evening’s cup clash, Le SCO have also been trounced in domestic action.
Lyon and Rennes have both ran out convincing 3-0 winners in Angers’ most recent two league tussles, making it eight Ligue 1 losses in 15 (W2-D5-L8).
The hosts fired blanks in nine of those matches, as well as failing to score in six of their last nine dates across all competitions when excluding lower-league opposition.
With Moulin’s men toiling in the final-third and already appearing ‘on the beach’, Angers look to be easily opposed against in-form Monaco.
The guests are understandably short in the pre-match markets but combining the away success alongside Over 1.5 Goals holds plenty of appeal at 1.83 quotes – a healthy 85% of Monaco matches have produced at least two goals this term.
*Odds advertised are guide prices. Proposed markets will be available to back on the day of the game at Matchbook.
- Sevilla to win and Under 3.5 Goals in Sevilla vs Granada 3 units @ 2.15
- Monaco to win and Over 1.5 Goals in Angers vs Monaco 3 units @ 1.83
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