With a 75% hit rate on the season (12 winners, two pushes and four losses) Mark O’Haire is looking to keep the positive momentum going with bets from Ligue 1 and the Premier League
FRIDAY NIGHT FUN AT THE STADE LA MEINAU
Strasbourg lifted the pressure on Julien Stéphan last Sunday when they recorded an overdue maiden Ligue 1 success of the season, seeing off Angers 3-2.
The underachieving Alsace outfit remain in the mire after 10 rounds of action (W1-D5-L4) following a wasteful opening stanza, although there’s an expectation on Le Racing to now climb the table.
Attacking trio Kevin Gameiro, Habib Diallo and Ludovic Ajorque led Stéphan’s team to sixth last term and were fancied to trouble the European qualification places in 2022/23.
However, Friday night’s hosts have toiled defensively – recording a solitary shutout – and failed to consistently fire in front of goal despite the individual quality at their disposal.
Regardless of their profligacy, Le Racing have still managed to get on the scoresheet in eight of their aforementioned 10 league showdowns this season, leading to successful Both Teams To Score wagers in eight encounters. Whilst across a larger sample since the beginning of 2021/22, Strasbourg have notched in 20 of their 24 home outings.
Lille head to the Stade de la Meinau with an even better BTTS record.
The visitors have scored in all 10 of their tussles under Paolo Fonseca, with last weekend’s fortunate 1-0 triumph over regional rivals Lens giving Les Dogues their first shutout of the campaign.
It means LOSC have returned Both Teams To Score winners in nine of their 10 dates.
Lille also boast an exceptional goalscoring return on the road since the start of last season – bagging in 20 of 24 away days during that same sample, picking up a paltry three clean sheets along the way. It gives Les Dogues a super-strong 71% success-rate for BTTS hunters with the likes of Jonathan David, Jonathan Bamba and Adam Ounas leading their attack.
Put the duos eye-catching Both Teams To Score records together and our proposed play has banked in 18 (90%) of their combined 20 Ligue 1 contests thus far. Yet the odds on offer suggests we’ve just a 55% chance of landing the bounty on Friday night.
I’m therefore happy to support goals at a nice value price.
BEST BET OF THE WEEK COMES FROM THE KING POWER
After the Bournemouth debacle, it’s surprising to see Brendan Rodgers still clinging on to his job with Leicester.
The Foxes’ 4-0 thumping of rivals Nottingham Forest was supposed to be the catalyst for a charge up the Premier League standings, but City slipped back into their rotten defensive ways at the Vitality Stadium and suffered a shocking 2-1 reverse.
It leaves Leicester rock-bottom of the early season standings and in need of another pick-me-up. But rather than put misplaced confidence in the Foxes, or even support a very capable Crystal Palace side, the most obvious angle of attack at the King Power Stadium is to steam into goals with Over 2.5 Goals trading at a very attractive 1.91 on Saturday.
That’s despite eight of Leicester’s nine dates already paying-out for Over 2.5 Goals, with five surpassing the Over 3.5 Goals line, and seven showdowns delivering successful Both Teams To Score wagers. The Foxes’ fixtures are averaging 4.33 goals per-game; the hosts have scored in eight, and also conceded in eight, boasting a record-breaking bad rearguard.
Rodgers’ troops have shipped 24 goals– historically the joint-highest tally ever the club has leaked after nine matches – with opponents grabbing multiple goals in seven of those nine match-ups. Yet Leicester have struck twice or more themselves on five occasions and the individual quality within the home ranks means they always pose a final-third threat.
If you’re not already convinced about a high-scoring shootout, just look at the incredibly persuasive digits than City are churning out.
Since the start of last season, Over 2.5 Goals has banked in 68% of the hosts’ EPL encounters (3.41 goals per-game) – 38% of those clashes copped for Over 3.5 Goals supporters with 70% delivering BTTS winners.
The 1.91 available implies just a 52% chance this wager pays-out on Saturday and at this point it’s worth noting the Premier League figures as a whole. The top-flight has covered the Over 2.5 Goals spread in 60% of their overall encounters with marches averaging 3.08 goals, 59% of which have featured both sides scoring.
There’s a clear disparity between the market prices on offer, Leicester’s long-term consistency for goal-heavy games, as well as the Premier League’s high-scoring tendencies.
And look, Crystal Palace are more than able to contribute to the expected entertainment at the KP having scored in seven of their opening eight and BTTS banking in six of those dates.
The Eagles have found the back of the net in 16 of 20 away days under Patrick Vieira when excluding Big Six opposition and you get the impression that Wilfried Zaha, Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze will be licking their lips at the prospect of facing this Foxes defence.
- Both Teams To Score in Strasbourg vs Lille – 1 unit @ 1.83
- Over 2.5 Goals in Leicester vs Crystal Palace – 1 unit @ 1.91