Mark O'Haire: Looking To Ligue 1 For Value This Weekend

7 min

Inform Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire is back once again to share his favourite fancies from the weekend with deux plays from Ligue 1.


Ligue 1 is Europe’s second-highest major scoring league this season with the French top-tier averaging a hefty 2.82 goals per-game.

Overall, 55% of matches have featured Over 2.5 Goals with a tasty 58% of fixtures producing profitable Both Teams To Score returns – that hit-rate implies blanket odds around 1.72 might be expected in an average encounter. 

However, the market has made BTTS a 1.82 shot on Sunday when two of the division’s chief protagonists for goal-filled games cross swords, and there’s good reason to believe this Montpellier versus Rennes match-up could prove to be an entertaining affair. 

Back-to-back defeats have kept Montpellier on the periphery of the relegation battle. Survival has yet to be rubber-stamped.

La Paillade have been moving in the right direction following the return of Michel der Zakarian as head coach at the beginning of February.


The Occitania outfit have W5-D2-L2 in that sample, scoring in all nine.

Der Zakarian can call upon real quality in the form of mercurial playmaker Teji Savanier and in-demand young hot-shot Elye Wahi with the Armenian earning a reputation for front-foot football during his previous four-year spell with the club.

MHSC supporters have already been treated to a glut of 12 goals in only five outings at their Stade de la Mosson base.

Rennes arrive as a bit of a fading force in Ligue 1 this term. Key injuries disrupted the side through the winter with Bruno Genesio clinging on to his job following an inconsistent W7-D1-L8 since the World Cup.

However, Les Rouge et Noirs sit just two points shy of European qualification after an eye-catching 3-0 success over Reims last weekend to get back on track.

The Brittany boys have now scored in 27 of their 31 Ligue 1 dates in 2022/23, including 14 of their 15 away days, suggesting Rennes will be more than capable of getting on the scoresheet here, especially so considering Montpellier have failed to keep their sheets clean in every home encounter against sides outside of the current bottom-six.

Yet Rennes have managed only three shutouts of their own in games as guests, whilst Montpellier grabbing a goal in 26 of 31 league matches too.

The hosts have fired just two blanks in 16 at the Stade de la Mosson with 11 (69%) paying-out for BTTS backers – an even more impressive 12/15 (75%) of Rennes’ road trips have followed suit. 


Lyon have endured an unsatisfactory campaign for the most part.

France’s fallen giants have been marooned in mid-table, and suffered a devastating Coupe de France semi-final defeat to mark a decade without a major trophy. But Les Gones appear to be finishing their Ligue 1 campaign strongly, with European qualification an outside possibility. 

Laurent Blanc’s troops are unbeaten in seven league fixtures, winning three on the spin.

Table-topping PSG and high-flying Rennes were dispatched along with Toulouse, to bring Lyon to within five points of fifth, but I’m quite happy to oppose the hosts this weekend when they welcome second-placed Marseille to the Groupama Stadium.

After all, OL have failed to success in over half of their home outings this term (W7-D5-L3) with three of their seven victories at Parc Olympique Lyonnais arriving against the bottom-three.

Exclude the stragglers and Lyon have posted just W4-D5-L3 as hosts in Ligue 1 and I make them a little too short to support at the lines and prices.

Marseille are 14 points better off than Les Gones and are PSG’s closest challenger, having been beaten only five times across their 31 previous encounters (W19-D7-L5).

Igor Tudor’s team are also quite comfortably the most potent away side in Ligue 1, boasting a superb W11-D3-L1 return with their only reverse arriving at the runaway league leaders. 

OM have already taken top honours at Monaco, Rennes, Reims and Nice, scored multiple goals in 11 of 15 on their travels and conceded just 10 away goals all season.

Yet we have the opportunity to back Marseille +0.0/0.5 at 1.80 here, a selection that would make us money should the visitors avoid defeat on Sunday night. 

Recommended Bets

  • Both Teams To Score in Montpellier vs Rennes – 1 unit @ 1.82
  • Marseille +0.0/0.5 Asian Handicap in Lyon vs Marseille – 1 unit @ 1.80

Subscribe to the Matchbook Betting Podcast here

Subscribe to the Matchbook YouTube channel here