Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on La Liga and Serie A this weekend.
No joy for our goal-based selection involving Real Sociedad last weekend but we’d be foolish to end our interest there. La Real were 2-0 victors against Levante at their Anoeta base, though the match did deserve more goals with the total Expected Goals (xG) figure coming in at 3.06 xG, as six Big Chances were created and a third goal ruled out for offside.
Matches involving Real Sociedad remain one of the highest for goals per-game output in La Liga (3.03) with no team in the Spanish top-flight seeing a better Both Teams To Score hit-rate than the Basques with an enormous 24/30 (80%) fixtures paying-out. La Real have scored in 27 of those 30 fixtures yet managed just three clean sheets in that same sample.
Supporting goals in Real Sociedad games isn’t entirely data-driven, mind. The Levante success has pushed La Real up to seventh in the standings and just four points off fifth – with La Liga likely to grab an extra Champions League qualification place, the San Sebastian side are now right in the running as one of the division’s form teams.
It would be an extraordinary achievement if La Real can clinch a top-five finish. Pellegrino Matarazzo was appointed during the winter break with Real Sociedad sitting just two points above the drop-zone – only Barcelona and Real Madrid have earned more points since his arrival with the American also booking a place in the Copa del Rey final (W10-D5-L3).
La Real’s resurgence and revival has really caught the eye with Real Sociedad playing a particularly fluid and exciting brand of attacking football – in eight of their last 12 league outings, the hosts have struck at least twice, even notching three goals or more on four occasions. Now they welcome an Alaves team battling for top-flight safety.
So both sides have plenty of motivation ahead of Saturday’s showdown and that only strengthens the case for goals. Matarazzo’s men have seen BTTS pay in 11 of his 13 league tussles, Over 2.5 Goals has clicked in nine of those contests with four or more strikes even providing profit on seven occasions. The most recent 12 matches have averaged 3.27 xG.
Over 2.5 Goals therefore has to be of interest with Real Sociedad capable of covering it on their own. However, Alaves are well-capable of contributing themselves – the two teams played out a 3-2 thriller in the Copa del Rey back in February, and the visitors arrive having been involved in plenty of entertaining recent encounters in league football.
Alaves played out a 2-2 draw with Osasuna last weekend and came from 3-0 down to beat Celta Vigo 4-3 on their travels before the international break, highlighting their threat. Nine of the Vitoria club’s past 11 have seen both sides score, four of their last six have featured Over 3.5 Goals with our required Over 2.5 delivering in seven of 11 and six of nine away.
Backing goals in Genoa games have become a bit of an obsession since Daniele De Rossi took charge of the Grifone at the end of October. Inheriting a side that were rock-bottom of Serie A, offering next to nothing in attack, the former Azzurri ace has transformed the nine-time champions. The Rossoblu are now fun to follow, effective and largely efficient.
De Rossi overhauled the side and their approach, dragging the team clear from immediate danger. Genoa are W8-D6-L8 under their new boss, earning the ninth-most points in Serie A since his appointment. During those 22 league matches, only Inter, Como, Juventus and Milan have scored more goals than the Grifone – the Rossoneri scoring just one goal more.
The adventurous approach has left Genoa more open defensively, mind. Only Inter’s contests have featured more goals than Genoa’s under De Rossi with a 2.86 goals per-game average across those 22 tussles – 19 of which have seen at least two strikes, 13 have covered the Over 2.5 Goals mark with the same hit-rate occurring for BTTS backers.
Last weekend’s trip to Turin to face Juventus really ought to have enhanced those figures too – Genoa were beaten 2-0 but missed a penalty in a match that featured plenty of goalmouth opportunities. Next up is Sassuolo on Sunday and these two always tends to put on a show with 10 of 11 head-to-heads seeing BTTS bank, nine produced 3+ strikes.
Sassuolo also have a reputation for goals and the Neroverdi arrive at the Marassi having gotten on the scoresheet in 11 of 15 away days thus far, recording just three clean sheets along the way. The visitors have seen Over 2.5 Goals click in seven of nine league games across all venues with both sides scoring in five of their most recent seven outings.
A repeat stands-out on Sunday, as do all the underrated goal markets. However, we’ll propose a play on Both Teams To Score here at a bulbous 1.89 seeing as 10 of Sassuolo’s 15 fixtures with bottom-half teams has seen this wager pay.
Subscribe to the Matchbook Betting Podcast here
Subscribe to the Matchbook YouTube channel here
