Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share his favourite fancies with a pair of goals plays from the Bundesliga this weekend.
Football: PREMIER LEAGUE GAMEWEEK 10 | Betting Preview | EFL | Europe https://t.co/Ul4iYS7tha
— Matchbook Betting Exchange (@TeamMatchbook) October 26, 2023
The Bundesliga continues to be the hottest destination for goals across Europe’s major leagues.
Germany’s top-flight is averaging a huge 3.54 goals per-game with 74% of encounters beating the Over 2.5 Goals line, 51% of fixtures featuring four strikes or more and 62% of outings seeing both sides oblige.
Turning that 74% hit-rate into implied odds would give us blanket odds around the 4/11 (1.36) mark for Over 2.5 Goals in a standard Bundesliga match.
Obviously, that’s not how to correctly price up a match for goals, however, it does give us a good barometer, especially when placed alongside the actual price for Over 2.5 Goals in this fixture – 4/5 (1.80).
Our proposed Over 2.5 Goals play has already banked in 12 (75%) of Augsburg and Wolfsburg’s combined 16 Bundesliga dates this season, whilst Both Teams To Score has clicked on 11 occasions, and their Saturday showdown promises plenty.
Augsburg have provided the heavy lifting with seven of their opening eight encounters featuring three strikes or more.
The Fuggerstädter have yet to keep their sheets clean but should approach this contest with confidence after overturning a two-goal deficit to defeat Heidenheim 5-2 in their first fixture under Jess Thorup’s tutorship last weekend.
At their Augsburg Arena base, FCA have tended to produce their best efforts in front of goal, scoring in all bar four of 21 home tussles going back to the beginning of last season.
Even so, the Fuggerstädter have only managed to silence five of their visitors during that same sequence and arrive having leaked multiple goals in seven of their eight outings in 2023/24.
Wolfsburg pitch up in poor form. Niko Kovac’s crew have been beaten in four of their past six matches, although all of the visitors’ defeats have arrived against current top-six sides.
Regardless, the Wolves tend to pack a punch and have gotten on the scoresheet in seven of eight encounters, recording only two shutouts along the way.
With Jonas Wind in impeccable scoring form – notching seven Bundesliga strikes already this season – and Wolfsburg bagging twice or more in all of their meetings with teams outside the top-six, the away side should be well capable of playing their part in an entertaining contest – Over 2.5 Goals too big to ignore at 4/5 (1.80) quotes.
I’m eager to support Over 2.5 Goals again on Saturday afternoon when Werder Bremen welcome Union Berlin to the Wesser Stadion.
Union make the journey after incurring a ninth successive loss across all competitions, the capital club suffering a 1-0 reverse to Napoli in the Champions League on Tuesday.
Urs Fischer’s squad have struggled to hit last season’s heights and are still searching for their first clean sheet of the campaign, consistently leaking multiple league goals.
Nevertheless, Die Eisernen have largely competed well despite their dreadful downturn in results and still offer enough in the final-third to suggest they could arrest their rotten run with a positive performance in Bremen.
Certainly, the home side’s underlying metrics point to a Werder side that’s potentially vulnerable this weekend.
Bremen have been beaten in six of eight outings, collected a solitary shutout and conceded twice or more in four of six fixtures with teams above them in the Bundesliga standings.
However, the hosts have also notched at least two goals in three of four Wesser Stadion showdowns, only failing to achieve that feature on the opening night against Bayern.
Considering the lay of the land, Over 2.5 Goals again appears the most sensible solution at 1.88.
It’s a play that’s already paid-out in six of Bremen’s eight match-ups thus far, as well as six of Union Berlin’s eight Bundesliga games, giving us a 12/16 (75%) success-rate this season.
Subscribe to the Matchbook Betting Podcast here
Subscribe to the Matchbook YouTube channel here
