Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share his favourite fancies from the weekend with a pair of plays proposed from Serie A and the 2.Bundesliga.
Bologna are Serie A’s surprise package this season. The Rossoblu are only three points shy of the top-four and enjoyed an eye-catching run to the Coppa Italia quarter-finals, eliminating table-topping Inter Milan along the way.
Bologna’s impressive efforts have drawn admiring glances from elsewhere, with head coach Thiago Motta attracting interest from Barcelona.
Motta insists his full focus is on the Rossoblu and last weekend’s 4-2 victory over Sassuolo was a welcome first success in five and puts the overachievers back in the mix for European football.
And I’m happy to back the underrated outfit ahead of Sunday’s home showdown with Lecce seeing as Bologna are available to support at a generous 1.8.
Bologna’s price appeals at the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara considering the Rossoblu have suffered just two home defeats across all competitions thus far, one of which arrived on the opening day.
In Serie A encounters, Motta’s men have posted W8-D2-L0 here since August, conceding only five goals in the process.
In contrast, Lecce head to Emilia-Romagna still searching for their first away success of the season (W0-D5-L6). Examine that road record further and we can see Roberto D’Aversa’s team have been beaten in six of seven trips to teams inside the top-11, whilst they’ve also managed to score a paltry tally of just nine goals on their travels.
I have Lecce rated third-bottom on away Expected Points (xP) and the Giallorossi head north on the back of five defeats in seven across all Serie A venues, a run of results that’s left the club only six points above the dreaded drop-zone.
With Lecce managing just three clean sheets across the whole campaign, it’s hard to see them containing Bologna here.
The 2.Bundesliga has been great fun to follow this season.
Germany’s second-tier has seen a chunky 63% of this season’s fixtures featuring winning Over 2.5 Goals selections with the same hit-rate occurring for Both Teams To Score backers; the division is averaging 3.18 goals per-game and Sunday’s showdown between Kaiserslautern and Paderborn promises plenty.
Despite booking their place in the DFB Pokal semi-finals, Kaiserslautern have slipped into relegation trouble following a disastrous run of league results since October’s international break (W1-D1-L9), yet the bulk of the damage has been done on their travels. Die Roten Teufel boast a reasonable (W5-D1-L4) return when entertaining 2.Bundesliga opposition.
Goals have also been a constant in Kaiserslautern contests thus far. FCK top the tree for successful Over 2.5 Goals wagers with a huge 85% of their league dates producing three strikes or more; with Die Roten Teufel on the look out for a first shutout of the season, it’s no surprise to see home games often escalating into high-scoring shootouts.
Nine of 10 matches at Kaiserslautern’s Fritz-Walter-Stadion base have provided Over 2.5 Goals profit with eight of those outings banking in the BTTS column.
Those encounters averaged 3.90 goals and 3.29 Expected Goals (xG); with visitors Paderborn also producing exceptional goal trends when playing away, we could be in for a treat.
Mid-table Paderborn remain in the promotion race, though most importantly for our proposed wager, the visitors have covered the Over 2.5 line in eight of 10 away days with seven of those showdowns also clicking in the Both Teams To Score market.
Those games averaged 3.2 goals with an xG output of 3.02 xG reinforcing our goal expectations.
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