Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share his favourite fancies from the weekend with a pair of plays proposed from Serie A and the Bundesliga.
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“Take us to Europe” the Bologna fans sang after seeing their side return back-to-back victories in big Serie A matches that mattered.
The Rossoblu – Italian football’s surprise package this season – are level on points with fourth-placed Atalanta after impressively overcoming both Fiorentina and Lazio in their last two league encounters.
Thiago Motta’s team started the campaign without expectation, but such has been their success, a place in continental competition next term has become a very realistic proposition.
The overachievers are impressing with their bold, fearless and aggressive style of football, whilst boasting the third-youngest starting XI across the division.
The Emilia-Romagna outfit have been especially eye-catching at their Stadio Renato Dall’Ara home, suffering just two home defeats across all competitions thus far, one of which arrived on the opening day.
In Serie A encounters, Motta’s men have posted W10-D2-L0 here since August, conceding only five goals in the process.
When welcoming bottom-eight opposition, Bologna have bagged five wins from five, scoring 15 goals and notching at least twice in each success.
The Rossoblu should therefore fancy their chances of enhancing those excellent efforts when relegation-haunted Verona arrive on Friday night.
Hellas have tabled just W1-D3-L9 on their travels and taken top honours only twice in their past 23 Serie A showdowns.
The Gialloblu have picked up a solitary point in seven trips to top-half teams, have scored only nine goals in 13 previous away days, and are attempting to bed-in a completely new-look squad following a drastic January overhaul.
I’m therefore happy to oppose the league’s third-lowest goalscorers and support Bologna here. By including Under 4.5 Goals, we can bolster the odds to an appetising 1.8, getting the 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 2-1 and 3-1 correct scores onside; each team have seen all of their Serie A matches bar one feature a maximum of four strikes this season.
“Everything that could go wrong, did go wrong today” said Thomas Tuchel after seeing his side beaten 3-2 by Bochum last weekend. It was FC Hollywood’s third successive loss – their worst losing streak for nine years and, just days later, unsurprisingly the club announced they would be parting company with Tuchel’s services in the summer.
Leon Goretzka labelled it “a horror movie that won’t end”. Manuel Neuer was perhaps more damning: “We can’t allow ourselves to fall apart like we did and concede three goals in Bochum. That is not FC Bayern.” Only it is, and has been, for large portions of the campaign.
Appearing directionless, rudderless and hugely vulnerable at times, retaining the Bundesliga looks an unrealistic proposition right now, with their next challenge potentially pouring even more cold water over their expectations of clinching a 12th successive Meisterschale.
RB Leipzig have rarely been straightforward opposition for Bayern in recent years, and this weekend’s encounter has become even more problematic considering the injuries and suspensions incurred.
Tuchel’s team may be without any available right-backs, whilst gung-ho Raphael Guerreiro is the only confirmed left-back fit enough to feature from the off.
Noussair Mazraoui, Konrad Laimer, Bouna Sarr, Sacha Boey and Dayot Upamecano are all absent for Saturday’s showpiece, with Alphonso Davies remaining doubtful.
The Bavarians may need to field Eric Dier as a makeshift right-back or revert to a back-three which worked dreadfully in their dismal and damaging recent defeat against Bayer Leverkusen.
Considering RB Leipzig have already scored at least twice in all six of their fixtures against top-four rivals Bayern, Leverkusen, Dortmund and Stuttgart this season – and arrive with close to a best XI available (featuring Xavi Simons, Dani Olmo, Benjamin Sesko and Lois Openda) – the visitors should expect to trouble that makeshift FCB rearguard.
With that in-mind, I’m more than happy to back RB Leipzig +1 on the Asian Handicap at 1.79, meaning only a Bayern Munich victory by a two-goal margin or more would see our selection lose out on Saturday evening.
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