Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire picks out a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on Spain and Brazil this weekend.
Barcelona’s extraordinary start to the season continued in emphatic fashion in midweek. Hansi Flick’s side demolished Racing Santander 7-2, with Raphinha scoring a hat-trick as the Catalans maintained their perfect La Liga record. Incredibly, Barça have now plundered five or more goals in five of their opening seven matches across all competitions.
Those numbers make opposing Barcelona extremely difficult. The defending champions are averaging an astonishing 3.52 npxG per game in La Liga and have carved out an enormous 43 Big Chances in those six league showdowns, landing 8.50 shots on target per game. Their attacking output has been relentless.
Yet for all that attacking dominance, Barcelona are allowing 1.20 npxG per game and have already conceded 17 Big Chances in La Liga, highlighting a clear vulnerability at the other end. Racing scored twice on Wednesday, while Levante also notched twice against them and generated 2.67 xG on that occasion.
Flick’s aggressive approach can leave the side exposed and Sevilla should therefore find encouragement. The home side won this fixture 4-1 last season and whilst a repeat looks highly unlikely, the hosts will back themselves to hurt Barça here having scored in each of their opening six outings (W4-D1-L1).
Whilst many were suggesting a relegation scrap could be in the offing, Sevilla have largely impressed and showed professionalism and poise in midweek to collect maximum points at Deportivo and continue their fine start. Nevertheless, there remains a quality gap between the two teams, and Atletico Madrid highlighted that when winning 3-1 here in August.
With that in mind, I’m happy to back Barcelona to Win and Both Teams To Score – it bolsters the odds on offer from 1/5 (1.20) on the away success to a much more palatable 6/5 (2.20) when including a Sevilla strike. The visitors have conceded in 13 of their previous 17 away days, whilst Sevilla have notched in 17 of their last 22 home dates.
Third faces 19th in Brazil’s Série B on Friday night, and this is one of those match-ups where the league table tells a pretty convincing story. Vila Nova are pushing hard for promotion; América-MG are fighting to keep their heads above water. More importantly for our proposed play, the underlying home and away numbers point firmly in the same direction.
Vila Nova have turned their own patch into a fortress. Ten wins from 13 home games is formidable enough, but the manner of those victories is even more encouraging. Os Tigres are averaging an eye-catching 2.15 goals per game as hosts and come into this contest having leaked only 11 home goals, recording five shutouts across their last seven.
Seven of Vila’s past eight at the Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga have ended in victory, with our proposed wager also landing in six of those eight. There’s been a 6-0 demolition, consecutive 2-0 wins and a couple of 2-1 successes in that sequence – Guto Ferreira’s charges have now plundered multiple goals in 10 of their 13 home matches (77%).
América-MG therefore look particularly vulnerable here. The visitors arrive second from bottom with only four wins all season and a bruising goal difference of -27. Away from home, things get uglier. América have lost six consecutive road games, conceding an average of two goals per match across that run and failing to score in three of them.
Those six results – 0-1, 1-2, 1-2, 0-3, 0-3 and 1-3 – paint the picture. América aren’t just struggling to win on the road; they’re repeatedly giving opponents the opportunity to put games beyond them. They’ve conceded 3+ goals in four of their previous six trips to the top nine and have allowed 2.00 goals per game on their travels this term (W1-D2-L11).
América sit second-bottom for away xP and are allowing 1.95 xG per game on the road. A similar defensive performance against one of the division’s most productive attacks is unlikely to end well and that makes Vila Nova to Win and Over 1.5 Goals the play at 4/5 (1.80). My model puts the combination around the 60% mark (1.68), giving us a nice edge.
Subscribe to the Matchbook Betting Podcast here
Subscribe to the Matchbook YouTube channel here
