Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire picks out a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on Norway and La Liga this weekend.
We’re taking a trip to the Eliteserien for our first selection, where Bodø/Glimt look to be underestimated by the market ahead of their clash with Rosenborg on Sunday.
Bodø booked their place in the Champions League league phase in emphatic fashion this week, cruising past NEC Nijmegen 6-1 on aggregate. Tuesday’s second leg was made considerably easier when NEC were reduced to 10 men in the third minute, so Bodø hardly had to empty the tank to finish the job.
That European success comes amid an excellent domestic run. After an unusually slow start to the season, Bodø are back on top of the table and are now 10 league games unbeaten, winning nine. More importantly for these bets, their underlying numbers suggest they’re every bit as dominant as those results imply.
At home, Kjetil Knutsen’s team have been ridiculous. Across eight league matches, Glimt are averaging exactly 3.00 goals scored and only 0.25 conceded per game. The expected-goals (xG) numbers are even more striking: 3.24 xG created and just 0.57 xG conceded. The hosts have kept six clean sheets, while five of their victories have come by three goals or more.
That makes Rosenborg’s away record particularly concerning. The visitors have failed to score in five of eight league trips this season, averaging only 0.88 goals per-game. Four of those eight away matches have ended in defeat without Rosenborg finding the net, including all three of their visits to teams currently sitting inside the top four.
There’s also a remarkably strong trend supporting BTTS No: this specific wager has paid-out in seven of Bodø’s eight home matches, as well as seven of Rosenborg’s eight away games.
The numbers suggest the market has left us some room, too. My model gives BTTS No a 49% probability, implying fair odds around 2.04 whereas the actual odds are paying 2.32.
I’ll also get involved with Bodø to win and BTTS No. My model gives that selection a 42% chance of success, compared with the bulbous odds on offer via the exchange.
Given Bodø’s suffocating home numbers and Rosenborg’s struggles to score on their travels, both angles of attack look well worth of our support.
Barcelona opened their season by putting five past Elche away from home, and I’m backing Hansi Flick’s side to dish out another convincing beating when Rayo Vallecano visit the Camp Nou on Monday night.
There were questions over where Barça’s goals would come from following the summer departures of Robert Lewandowski and Ferran Torres. The early answer? Pretty much everywhere.
Fermín López and Raphinha scored twice apiece in the 5-0 win, while Karim Adeyemi struck on his competitive debut and Anthony Gordon supplied two assists from the bench in an attacking display that suggested Flick has doubled down on his aggressive, direct approach.
The Blaugrana face Athletic Club on Thursday, but attention here is on Monday and a meeting between two clubs currently operating in completely different stratospheres.
While Barcelona are targeting La Liga and Champions League success, Rayo look set for a battle simply to stay afloat. Last season was their best ever, featuring an eighth-place finish and a European final, but much of that optimism has since disappeared.
Head coach Iñigo Pérez has been poached by Villarreal, while Pathé Ciss has gone on strike and Nobel Mendy and Pep Chavarría have already been sold. Goalkeeper Augusto Batalla then fractured his tibia against Alavés and faces months on the sidelines.
Things are just as chaotic off the pitch. Safety concerns at Vallecas have forced Rayo out of their own stadium, stripping away one of their biggest competitive advantages. Only around 4,000 supporters watched their first nominal ‘home’ fixture at Leganés, and striker Sergio Camello summed up the mood afterwards by admitting the players were “exhausted” by everything happening around the club.
Results haven’t provided much respite. Rayo opened with a 2-1 defeat at Sevilla, fading badly after a promising start, before drawing 1-1 with Alavés.
Now they have to contain a Barcelona attack whose movement, directness and willingness to flood central areas caused Elche enormous problems. Barça have vulnerabilities of their own, particularly at centre-back, while Gavi is injured again, but there’s still a huge gulf in quality between these squads.
The numbers under Flick underline that disparity. Barcelona have won 58% of their home matches by two goals or more, with 39% won by at least three. Against bottom-half opposition, those figures jump to 75% and 55% respectively. As I expect Rayo amongst the bottom six or eight this season, Barça will be expecting to flex their muscles.
I’m backing Barcelona -1.5/2.0 on the Asian Handicap at 1.80. A two-goal Barça victory returns a half-win, while a victory by three or more lands the bet in full.
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