Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share his favourite fancies from the weekend with a pair of plays from the Ligue 1 and 2. Bundesliga this weekend.
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It’s been a positive start to the season for goals-based backers in Ligue 1 with the opening three rounds of action producing 3.15 goals per-game.
A tasty 70% of those showdowns have paid-out for Both Teams To Score backers with 59% of fixtures featuring three goals or more and the latter approach holds plenty of appeal when Brest host Rennes.
Over 2.5 Goals is trading at 1.82 for Saturday afternoon’s showdown at the Stade Francis-Le Ble and that’s a price worth snapping up considering the credentials of the two teams.
Brest opened their 2023/24 account with a thrilling 3-2 home triumph over Lens, before beating newly-promoted Le Havre 2-1. Les Pirates suffered a 2-0 reverse at Marseille last time out, yet the Brittany boys fired in 18 shots at the Stade Velodrome, doing more than enough to get themselves on the scoresheet.
Eric Roy’s expressive outfit have now failed to score just five times in his 24 Ligue 1 matches in charge, whilst Brest have fired a solitary blank in 12 home tussles under his tutorship.
The hosts have seen the Over 2.5 Goals line covered in 58% of those encounters, with this term’s tussles returning an eye-catching 3.37 Expected Goals (xG) per-game output.
Rennes arrive after frustratingly failing to beat 10-man Le Havre at home last week – that 2-2 draw followed a 1-1 stalemate at Lens, with Les Rouge et Noirs opening their season with a 5-1 demolition of Metz.
All three dates have therefore delivered winning BTTS selections, with two ties also breaking the Over 3.5 Goals barrier. The xG average sits at 3.52 xG.
Bruno Genesio’s group will be proactive in their approach, boasting an excellent goals return.
Rennes have scored in 36 of 41 league matches since the start of last season, netting in 18 of 20 away days.
However, the guests have managed only two clean sheets in that 20-game sample, suggesting both should oblige as a bare minimum.
Selection: Over 2.5 Goals in Brest vs Rennes – 1 unit @ 1.82
The 2.Bundesliga has a reputation for entertainment and the early season action from Germany’s second-tier has provided plenty of fun.
The division is delivering 2.92 goals per-game on average with an impressive 61% of contests covering the Over 2.5 Goals line – again, it’s the angle I’d like to attack when Kaiserslautern take on Nurnberg.
Bundesliga champions as recently as 1998, Kaiserslautern have endured a difficult decade. Die Roten Teufel spent a spell in the 3.Liga before bouncing back and consolidating last time out – now Dirk Schuster’s side have aspirations to return to the big time.
Four games into the embryonic campaign, Kaiserslautern (W2-D0-L2) are sat in mid-table.
However, the hosts’ fixtures have been fantastic fun to follow with four successive Over 2.5 Goals winners – three of which included Both Teams To Score – and I’m going to support a repeat of Over 2.5 Goals at 1.83 on Saturday night at the Fritz-Walter-Stadion.
Kaiserslautern’s four contests have averaged a beefy 3.59 Expected Goals (xG), with only one 2.Bundesliga club boasting more overall Big Chances in their matches thus far. Last season Die Roten Teufel delivered a winning goals total in 65% of their home outings, with Over 2.5 Goals also proving profitable in both meetings with Nurnberg.
Nurnberg were a top-flight club in 2019 and are also working their way back into promotion consideration after a difficult spell in the lower leagues.
Der Club are W2-D1-L1 in 2023/24, striking twice or more in three of those four fixtures without yet claiming a clean sheet – three of those four encounters paid-out for Over 2.5 Goals supporters.
Head coach Cristian Fiel has injected a progressive, forward-thinking game-plan into FCN this term after final-third struggles blighted their 2022/23 campaign.
The results have certainly been positive with matches returning an average of 3.14 xG, as only Hamburg have created more Big Chances than Nurnberg through the first month of action.
Ultimately, Over 2.5 Goals has copped in seven of the duos combined eight league dates, six of which have also featured both sides scoring.
I’m therefore eager to support another goal-heavy game when the two teams cross swords on Saturday night.
Selection: Over 2.5 Goals in Kaiserslautern vs Nurnberg – 1 unit @ 1.83
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