Mark O'Haire - Bundesliga Basement Battle & Spanish Capital Clash

7 min

After a profitable weekend, football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share his favourite fancies, with a pair of goals plays from the Bundesliga and La Liga.


The Bundesliga goal rush showed no sign of abating on MD10 as six of the nine fixtures crossed the Over 2.5 Goals barrier.

The German top-flight has now seen a humungous 74% of overall encounters feature a minimum of three goals with 52% of matches also landing for Over 3.5 Goals backers; the division boast a huge 3.64 goals per-game average.

Two heavy contributors to those sky-high totals now collide on Saturday afternoon as struggling pair Darmstadt and Mainz cross swords.

Considering the duo have combined to see 17 (85%) of their collective 20 contests produce Over 2.5 Goals profit, I’m keen to support a repeat at an attractive 1.78 this weekend.

Impressively, 13 (65%) of those 20 tussles paid-out for Over 3.5 Goals punters, whilst 15 (75%) fixtures also delivered for Both Teams To Score hunters.

Despite operating inside the bottom-four, the two teams have managed to get on the scoresheet in 16 (80%) of those 20 outings, although the basement battlers have managed a solitary shutout between them.

Newly-promoted Darmstadt have notched in all of their Bundesliga dates bar a trip to defending champions Bayern Munich (where the visitors incurred two red cards).

Torsten Lieberknecht’s team have taken a front-foot approach to life in the top-flight, but have tended to toil defensively, shipping multiple goals in eight of their last nine games.

With matches at Darmstadt’s Stadion am Böllenfalltor base boasting 4.80 goals per-game, and Mainz’s away days delivering 4.00 goals on average, it’s easy to envisage a high-scoring shootout

The visitors have plundered two goals or more in three of their most recent four yet have also leaked at least twice in eight of their last nine Bundesliga encounters.

The Over 2.5 Goals option is a no-brainer at 1.78.


Atletico Madrid extended their astonishing home winning streak at the Metropolitano in midweek after slamming Celtic 6-0 in the Champions League

Los Colchoneros have now won each of their last 16 home games across all competitions, earning a remarkable W17-D1-L0 at their capital base since defeat to Barcelona here back in January.

Diego Simeone’s side have scored multiple goals in 15 of those 18 unbeaten dates and in 2023/24 alone, Atletico have racked up 22 goals in their seven straight home successes.

Los Colchoneros are no longer the Atleti of old. Simeone has released the shackles and allowed his more creative players freedom to express themselves, handing the initiative to his forward-thinking stars.

The 2021 champions have been one of La Liga’s chief entertainers this calendar year and I’m expecting that theme to continue on Sunday night.

Villarreal visit eager to turn their disappointing form around. El Submarino Amarillo are languishing in the bottom-half of La Liga, have already made a coaching change, yet seen little upturn in performance levels.

Last weekend Pacheta’s posse were 3-0 down at home to Athletic before scoring two late goals to give the scoreline a more respectable look.

All three of Villarreal’s league victories have arrived against bottom-four opposition and it’s difficult to see El Submarino Amarillo halting Atletico’s exceptional home streak.

However, the away side look underrated in the goals market here with Both Teams To Score trading at a bulbous 1.80, a wager I’m keen to support.

Villarreal have managed just two league clean sheets, conceded 1.75 goals per-game and allowed 1.63 Expected Goals (xG) on average.

Even so, the visitors have gotten on the scoresheet in 11 of their 12 La Liga tussles, and they’re travelling to an Atletico outfit that’s amassed a solitary shutout in seven Metropolitano matches this term.

Both Teams To Score has proven a profitable formula in six of Atletico’s seven home dates across all competitions this season, as well as 10 of Villarreal’s 12 La Liga contests, including all six of their meetings with top-half teams.

It’s also worth noting that three of the past four head-to-heads between Atleti and Villarreal ended in enjoyable 2-2 draws.

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