Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies, with a focus on the Bundesliga and La Liga on Saturday.
The Bundesliga is avergaing 3.20 goals per-game in 2025/26 with 63% of overall outings featuring Over 2.5 Goals and a hefty 42% of fixtures producing four goals or more. That 63% hit-rate implies odds around the 4/7 (1.57) mark would be expected on a blanket top-flight game from Germany and that’s largely the case across the board this weekend.
However, Freiburg’s clash with Werder Bremen on Saturday at Europa-Park Stadion goes against the grain with Over 2.5 Goals available to support at an eye-catching 17/20 (1.85). That’s despite both raw numbers and underlying data pointing towards a goal-heavy clash.
Freiburg have been reliable contributors. The Black Forest boys failed to score in just five of 20 league outings this term and have found the net in all nine of their home matches. Stretch the sample back to the start of last season and Julian Schuster’s side have scored in 23 of 26 home fixtures, averaging an impressive 1.92 goals per-game.
However, Freiburg have also returned just five clean sheets in that 26-game sample, recording a solitary shutout in nine home top-flight tussles this term. That’s led to 8/9 home dates delivering Both Teams To Score winners, with 7/9 seeing Over 2.5 Goals, whilst a massive 81% of those long-term matches have also covered the Over 2.5 Goals mark.
Bremen arrive in a state of transition. A 1-1 draw with Gladbach extended their winless run to 10 and prompted the dismissal of Horst Steffen, with former Fortuna Dusseldorf boss Daniel Thioune stepping in. His arrival also encourages goals with his Fortuna sides typically front-foot and entertaining, averaging 3.16 goals per-game across his reign.
It’s unrealistic to expect an instant defensive fix for a Bremen team that have managed only four clean sheets all season. Sticking with the goals trail, a mighty 70% of Werder’s away days since the start of 2024/25 have featured at least three goals and with Thioune now in-charge, I’m expecting the visitors to engage here as opposed to sitting back.
That should prompt another goal-filled game, whilst underlying reinforce that theory. Freiburg fixtures are averaging around 3.0 xG with Bremen games sitting just shy at 2.9 xG per-game, with both figures ticking upwards in their respective home and away splits. Everything points toward another open Bundesliga encounter with goals undervalued.
Two of La Liga’s most entertaining sides face-off on Saturday night with Real Sociedad and Elche’s encounter at Anoeta promising plenty with all the signs pointing towards goals.
Real Sociedad are enjoying a remarkable revival since Pellegrino Matarazzo’s appointment over the Christmas period. The mood around the Basque outfit has completely shifted and what once looked like a relegation scrap was looming has transformed into outside whispers of a European qualification, and potentially even silverware.
La Real are unbeaten in six under their new boss, tabling four triumphs – including a standout success against Barcelona. It’s been a tough schedule for Matarazzo’s men with the derby against Athletic Club, a strong Celta side, a trip to Getafe, as well as hosting Atletico, whilst in the Copa del Rey they’ve progressed in away ties at Osasuna and Alaves.
Real Sociedad’s progress is being underpinned by a new-found appetite for aggressive, front-foot football. That approach has brought excitement, plus vulnerability. La Real carry plenty of attacking threat yet remain far from watertight defensively. Clean sheets have been hard to come by, which is why the goals markets stand-out on Saturday.
Elche arrive with a similar profile. The newly-promoted side have embraced the challenge of top-flight football, unafraid to mix it with the big boys. Despite a recent dip, Los Franjiverdes have provided plenty of punch and head into MD23 with the same goalscoring hit-rate as Real Sociedad – the duo have each scored in 19 of their opening 22 La Liga matches.
That’s a remarkable return for a side of Elche’s profile, particularly as only the traditional Big Three heavyweights and Real Betis boast better attacking consistency. However, defensively, Elche share Sociedad’s fragility; the hosts have managed just five clean sheets, only one more than La Real, leading to a collection of Both Teams To Score winners.
BTTS has banked in 18 of Real Sociedad’s 22, plus 15 of Elche’s outings – two of the strongest returns in the division. Since October’s international break, 16 of La Real’s 17 matches across all competitions have landed the BTTS bounty, including 11 of 13 at home. It’s also cashed in Elche’s last six, as well as nine of their 12 away days this term.
With two proactive teams, proven scoring records, and a defensive process that invites chances, backing Both Teams To Score at 10/11 (1.91) looks a stand-out angle.
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