Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share his favourite fancies from the weekend with a pair of plays proposed from the final weekend of the Premier League.
Manchester City were a long way from their very best in Tuesday night’s vital victory at Tottenham but it was job done as far as Pep Guardiola’s group were concerned. The Citizens arrive at MD38 of the Premier League season knowing a home success over West Ham will secure a historic fourth successive top-flight title and it’s difficult to oppose the hosts.
West Ham are guaranteed to finish in the top-half of the EPL table and had their opportunity to give David Moyes a deserved send-off last weekend at the London Stadium. The Hammers have little left to play for and their recent road record has been rank, as has the majority of their matches when stepping up in class at elite opposition.
Moyes’ men have been turned over in five of their seven trips to teams above them, shipping at least three goals in all five defeats. In fact, West Ham own the third-worst away defensive record in the division and have shipped 3+ goals in 10 of their 18 games as guests. The Irons’ last four road trips have seen the visitors concede goal tallies of 5-5-1-4.
Now travelling to a highly-motivated Man City side, there’s potential for things to unravel and get ugly – so I like the prospect of backing Man City to win by Any Other Home Score in the Correct Score market at 2.12. To pocket ourselves profit here, all we need is Man City to win the match and score at least four goals in the process.
Our preferred play has paid-out in six of Man City’s last eight Premier League outings and should go close here considering West Ham’s dreadful defensive numbers – the Hammers are haemorrhaging goals of late and have allowed an awful 2.20 Expected Goals (xG) away from the London Stadium across the campaign thus far.
Having analysed the last 10 seasons worth of MD38 data from the Premier League, there is a clear trend towards end of season goals. That 100-game sample has seen an average of 3.32 goals per-game in final day fixtures, an increase of 0.60 goals per-match from the overall average goal count across the previous 37 rounds of action.
With the current campaign already demolishing the previous record for most goals in a 38-game EPL season – we’re currently on 1,209 with the previous best being 1,084 – the top-flight is boasting an eye-catching 3.27 goals per-game. Add that 0.60 goals per-game premium on top to cover the MD38 hike and 3.87 goals could be expected across the board.
Understandably, the market is already on-guard for potential goal-gluts but the match between all-but relegated Luton and nothing-to-play-for Fulham offers an opportunity for punters to get involved with the Over 3.5 Goals line paying an attractive 2.14.
Luton are the Both Teams To Score kings of the Premier League this season – hitting in 81% of their top-flight tussles, and with 43% of their overall encounters featuring a minimum of four strikes, a repeat holds plenty of appeal considering Fulham have delivered Over 3.5 Goals in almost 40% of their matches away from Craven Cottage.
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