Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share his favourite fancies from the weekend with a pair of plays from Ligue 1 and the Bundesliga.
OPPOSE AWFUL ANGERS
Montpellier are back moving in the right direction following the return of Michel der Zakarian as head coach.
The Armenian enjoyed a fruitful four-year stint with La Paillade before leaving in May 2021 and resumed his role at the beginning of February with the Occitania team embroiled in a battle for top-flight survival.
The response has been almost immediate. Fellow strugglers Brest (3-0) and Troyes (1-0) were turned over in back-to-back Ligue 1 encounters, whilst last weekend Montpellier picked up a surprise point (1-1) at home to high-flying Lens despite the absence of mercurial playmaker Teji Savanier and in-demand young hot-shot Elye Wahi.
Now six points above the drop-zone, Montpellier have an excellent opportunity to push further clear of the bottom-four by overcoming rock-bottom Angers on Sunday.
Savanier returns from suspension with Wahi also back in training to bolster the ranks, as La Paillade look to enhance an impressive return of seven victories from 10 against the bottom-six.
Angers are already planning for life in Ligue 2 with the basement battlers already 11 points from safety having lost 19 of their 25 league dates thus far.
Le SCO have been beaten in nine of 12 away days, scoring just seven goals, conceding 25 in the process, leaking at least twice in five of six previous trips to fellow bottom-half outfits (W0-D1-L5).
Yet most damming is Angers’ appalling efforts since the September international break.
Over the last 17 Ligue 1 showdowns, Les Noirs et Blancs have picked up just two points from a possible 51 (W0-D2-L15) to lose sight of survival.
It’s quite a straightforward selection. Montpellier are simply too big at 1.86 to overcome an Angers side that’s already suffered 19 (76%) defeats in 25 league fixtures this season.
GET WITH THE GOALS IN GERMANY
The Bundesliga is averaging a lofty 3.20 goals per-game in 2022/23 with 61% of fixtures featuring Over 2.5 Goals and 39% of matches beating the Over 3.5 Goals line.
The German top-flight is quite comfortably the highest-scoring division in Europe’s top-five leagues.
Turning the aforementioned 61% hit-rate for Over 2.5 Goals into implied odds would give us a blanket price below 4/6 (1.66) in a standard Bundesliga showdown.
It’s quite a crude way of showcasing probabilities and price but it gives you a decent ideas as to why Over 2.5 Goals is an appealing prospect at 1.86 when Wolfsburg take on Eintracht Frankfurt.
Wolfsburg bounced back to winning ways at Koln last weekend to reignite their European qualification prospects and the Wolves have now plundered multiple goals in 11 of their most recent 15 league outings.
The hosts are averaging 1.82 goals per-game under Niko Kovac’s watch with contests at their Volkswagen Arena tending to be thrilling affairs.
Indeed, no side has seen a higher home goals per-game average than Wolfsburg with their Saxony base delivering a huge 4.00 goals per-game through 10 fixtures.
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Overall, eight of those 10 tussles crossed the Over 2.5 Goals barrier with seven showdowns featuring four goals or more. Wolfsburg have scored 2+ in 8/10 here yet also shipped 2+ goals in 6/10.
Eintracht Frankfurt fell to a 2-1 reverse at RB Leipzig in their most recent Bundesliga clash, making it nine winning Both Teams To Score selections from 11 when playing away from home under Oliver Glasner this term.
Seven of those match-ups paid-out for Over 2.5 Goals backers with Die Adler still searching for their first clean sheet on their domestic duties.
Nevertheless, Eintracht have gotten on the scoresheet in all bar three of their 22 Bundesliga battles and notched in all three trips to fellow top-half teams (Leipzig, Bayern Munich and Freiburg).
With in-form Randal Kolo Muani leading the line, plus a rejuvenated Mario Gotze, Daichi Kamada and Jesper Lindstrom all fit and available, the visitors pack plenty of punch.
There’s plenty to play for here and all the underlying metrics support a goal-heavy game so I’m keen to support Over 2.5 Goals at an attractive value price.
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