Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on the Bundesliga and Scottish Premiership.
Eintracht Frankfurt’s fixtures have caught the imagination across Europe this season – and for good reason. Die Adler’s Bundesliga and Champions League encounters have featured a remarkable 5.63 goals per-game with all eight outings producing Over 2.5 Goals, seven seeing four strikes or more and seven also obliging for Both Teams To Score backers.
Sunday’s trip to Freiburg promises more of the same and Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score looks an excellent angle of attack at 1.80 considering their early season contests have already produced scorelines such as 4-1, 3-1, 1-3, 5-1, 3-4, 6-4, 1-5, 0-3. It’s been fantastic fun to follow – the attacking intent is admirable, the defending… less so.
Dino Toppmöller’s troops head to the Black Forest having fired their first blank of the campaign in a 3-0 home reverse to Bayern Munich before the international break. Eintracht did hit the woodwork and saw a goal ruled out via VAR, and they’ll be eager to pick up a positive result to claw their way back into the Bundesliga’s top-four.
However, Freiburg are no slouches. Julian Schuster’s side were held to a 0-0 draw with Borussia Monchengladbach before the break, though the majority of their matches have also trended heavily towards goals. Six of the Black Forest club’s eight league and Europa League dates have seen both sides score with 4/6 Bundesliga games seeing 3+ strikes.
Europa-Park Stadion has also been a reliable source of entertainment – since the start of last season, a hefty 80% of Freiburg’s 20 home league matches have seen the Over 2.5 Goals barrier beaten, with 60% of games going Over 3.5 – 75% also delivered BTTS pay-outs. The hosts scored in 17 of those 20 showdowns, managing just four clean sheets of their own.
Meanwhile, Frankfurt have proven profitable for BTTS backers in 70% of their 20 Bundesliga away days going back to the beginning of last term, Eintracht scoring in 16 of those contests and silencing just three of their opponents.
Historically, this fixture delivers too – five of the last six head-to-heads have seen Over 2.5 Goals cop, whilst 10 of the last 12 have seen both teams score. That combination stands-out on Sunday.
St Mirren appear underrated by the market ahead of Saturday’s meeting with Aberdeen, with the Buddies trading around 2.45 to collect all three points. That price suggests Aberdeen would be favourites on neutral territory – an assessment that feels difficult to justify considering the Dons plight over the past 12 months.
Aberdeen currently sit rock-bottom of the Scottish Premiership (W1-D1-L4) having failed to even score in six of their opening seven outings. The Dons only success came against second-from-bottom Dundee, and their problems stretch far beyond the current campaign.
After a flying start under Jimmy Thelin last season (W10-D1-L0), Aberdeen have collapsed, picking up W6-D8-L20 in their following 34 league fixtures, averaging 0.76 points per-game. A meagre 28 goals in that same period reflects a side struggling badly for cutting edge and confidence.
The Dandies’ away form is proving particularly alarming: no goals and three defeats from three on the road this term, extending a miserable record of W2-D4-L13 in their last 19 Premiership away days. The two wins came at relegated Ross County and struggling Dundee – whilst the visitors have now netted just five goals in their last 15 road trips.
Their head-to-head record offers little encouragement either. St Mirren have won five of the last six meetings between the sides, while Aberdeen have gone seven trips to Paisley without victory (W0-D2-L5). The Buddies’ physical, no-nonsense style has consistently unsettled the Dons, and there’s little to suggest that changes this weekend.
St Mirren themselves aren’t the most flamboyant outfit – just five goals scored in seven league games – but they’re exceptionally well-drilled. Their only losses this season have come against Celtic and Kilmarnock, currently second and third in the table. In fact, the Buddies have lost just once in 10 home league games (to Celtic) dating back to February.
With both sides struggling in front of goal, a low-scoring affair looms. Only one of their combined 14 league games this season has gone Over 3.5 Goals, and 12 of 14 have finished Under 2.5. I’m expecting a tight, attritional contest where the organised hosts look by far the likelier winners – St Mirren Double Chance and Under 3.5 Goals therefore appeals.
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