Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share his favourite fancies from the weekend with a pair of plays from Brazil and Sweden this weekend.
Mark went 2/2 last week and is hoping to repeat the feat once again…
Football: PREMIER LEAGUE GAMEWEEK 2 | Betting Preview | EFL | Europe https://t.co/xMGLb0PAsM
— Matchbook Betting Exchange (@TeamMatchbook) August 16, 2023
Fluminense registered a respectable third-place finish in Brazil’s Serie A last season with the Rio de Janeiro outfit earning Copa Libertadores group-stage qualification in the process.
The Tricolor have continued where they left off in 2022 and come into Week 20 in a promising position domestically, with continental dreams also alive and kicking.
Sitting only three points shy of second spot in the Campeonato, Flu have progressed to the quarter-finals of the Copa with the club’s Maracana form proving the basis for another strong campaign on multiple fronts.
Fernando Diniz’s group have posted W7-D3-L0 here in Serie A, recording five clean sheets and shipping just five goals across those 10 tussles.
Include all competitions and Fluminense’s record in Rio appears almost flawless.
The Tricolor are unbeaten in 21 outings here (W16-D5-L0) dating back to January, with the side suffering only two defeats in 40 (W28-D10-L2) since June 2022.
Flu have only failed to score in four of those 40 fixtures, racking up a total of 19 shutouts along the way.
Underlying metrics also paint an eye-catching picture at the Maracana when viewing Serie A’s performance data.
Fluminense sit second for Expected Goals (xG) ratio – no top-flight team conceding a lower xG figure in front of their own supporters, whilst Diniz’s troops have won the xG count in eight of their 10 tussles here, highlighting their dominance.
The same can’t be said of basement battlers America MG. The visitors arrive rock-bottom (W2-D4-L12), without a win in nine (W0-D3-L6), as well as owning the division’s worst road record (W0-D3-L6).
The Belo Horizonte boys have leaked multiple goals in eight of their nine away days, allowing 1.98 xG per-game when on their travels this term.
With Fluminense back involved in Copa Libertadores knockout action on Thursday, the hosts will be looking to secure top honours with the minimum of fuss and so backing Fluminense to win and Under 4.5 Goals holds plenty of appeal at 1.80.
None of Flu’s 10 Maracana league matches have featured more than three goals, let alone 5+.
Fluminense to win and Under 4.5 Goals in Fluminense vs America MG – 1 unit @ 1.80
There’s a fascinating three-way title race in Sweden as we enter Week 20 in the Allsvenskan. Data darlings Elfsborg lead the way, although their advantage at the top of the table has been cut to just one point following two defeats in their most recent three fixtures, plus pocketing only two triumphs from five since early July.
The Yellow Ones will be hoping to get back on track at their Boras base on Sunday when mid-table Mjallby arrive.
The inconsistent visitors have tended to fall short when facing-off with the league’s leaders, returning W2-D2-L7 when taking on the top-10.
But rather than attack the Match Odds or Handicap markets, I’m instead going to venture into the Both Teams To Score options with BTTS No available to support at a very reasonable 2.00. Why? Elfsborg and Mjallby have a penchant for keeping games tight, and both sides can call upon impressive defensive numbers across the Allsvenskan.
Collectively, the clubs have kept 17 (45%) clean sheets in 38 league dates thus far. Drill down to respective home/away records and the duo have delivered nine (50%) shutouts from 18 outings, shipping just 15 strikes in that same sample.
Unsurprisingly, that’s led to 13 (68%) successful BTTS No selections in the aforementioned home/away contests.
Overall, BTTS No has banked in 25 (66%) of the pairs 38 fixtures and Expected Goals (xG) data also suggests a tight tussle could be on the cards; Elfsborg own the division’s best defensive data – in terms of xG and actual goals against, whilst Mjallby’s road trips have produced the lowest xG output across the Allsvenskan in 2023.
And for those who enjoy head-to-head trends, six of the past eight meetings between the teams have seen our proposed play pay-out, including the reverse clash which concluded in a narrow 1-0 success for table-topping Elfsborg.
Both Teams To Score ‘No’ in Elfsborg vs Mjallby – 1 unit @ 2.00
Subscribe to the Matchbook Betting Podcast here
Subscribe to the Matchbook YouTube channel here
