Mark O'Haire - Fogo Fancies & Unrelliable Atleti

6 min

Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share his favourite fancies from the weekend with a pair of plays proposed from Brazil and Spain.


The new Brasileiro season is only four rounds old, but Botafogo are already making an early impression. The Rio de Janeiro club top the embryonic table following a W3-D0-L1 return, notching 10 goals in the process, with many Brazilian pundits suggesting Fogo have the quality to challenge for title honours in 2024.

The club spent €2m to bring-in highly-rated Braga coach Arthur Jorge in April and the managerial move has certainly gotten off to a promising start. A couple of tactical tweaks in both boxes appears to have given the group lift-off with the likes of Jefferson Savarino, Tiquinho Soares and Danilo Barbosa all impressing as Botafogo showcase their potential.

Last time out, Fogo produced a statement performance to overcome city rivals and ante-post favourites Flamengo 2-0 at the Maracana without conceding a single shot on-target, again highlighting the strides made under Jorge’s leadership. Now returning to their Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos home, O Glorioso will be eager to continue their renaissance.

Botafogo dominated Juventude in their last home outing and a repeat of those standards should prove too much for Bahia on Sunday night. The visitors opened their account with eye-catching victories over Fluminense and Gremio on home soil but have since faltered on their travels, losing 2-1 at Internacional before a 2-2 draw at newly-promoted Vitoria.

Bahia have given up 30 shots in those two away Brasileiro battles, 17 on-target efforts and close to four Expected Goals (xG). It also means, across all competitions, the visitors have now shipped multiple goals in five successive games as guests this term, whilst posting 13 league losses in their last 21 away games, failing to even score on 11 occasions.

Botafogo’s solid start to 2024 is already attracting interest and the home side are well worth supporting to succeed here at 1.90 quotes.

  • Botafogo -0.5 in Botafogo vs Bahia – 1 unit @ 1.9


Atletico Madrid’s top-four claims were strengthened last weekend as Los Colchoneros overcame Athletic 3-1 at the Metropolitano. Diego Simeone’s men now boast a significant six-point cushion above the Basques with five games to play as they bid to secure another season of Champions League football in 2024/25.

Atletico’s campaign has been built upon their road solid home record – no La Liga side has earned more points in front of their own supporters this season. However, the capital club just cannot be trusted outside of Madrid – Simeone’s side have tabled only five away league triumphs this term, falling to defeats in exactly half of their 16 games as guests.

So quotes of 2.18 on Atletico ahead of their trip to Mallorca on Saturday make little appeal despite the hosts being embroiled in the scrap for survival. The visitors have proven unreliable short-priced away favourites having already been downed in four of their eight trips to teams in 12th and below. I’m therefore happy to oppose Atleti here.

Mallorca are a physical outfit that tend to produce their best in Palma. Javier Aguirre’s uncompromising group has enjoyed unsettling the big guns on the island and won’t hesitate to engage in an arm-wrestle. With top-flight survival still very much in the offing, expect the home side to make life uncomfortable for Atletico here – Mallorca +0.50 appeals at 1.81.

Real Madrid only escaped Son Moix with a 1-0 victory, Barcelona were held here 2-2, Girona suffered a 1-0 reverse and Athletic played out a goalless draw here – last season, both Real and Atleti were beaten by the same 1-0 scoreline, whilst the reverse encounter between Simeone’s side and Mallorca at the Metropolitano ended 0-0, highlighting the hosts’ threat.

  • Real Mallorca +0.5 in Real Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid – 1 unit @ 1.81

Recommended Bets

  • Botafogo -0.5 in Botafogo vs Bahia – 1 unit @ 1.9
  • Real Mallorca +0.5 in Real Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid – 1 unit @ 1.81

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