Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on La Liga and the Swiss Super League.
Barcelona survived a major scare at Club Brugge in midweek as the Blaugrana escaped Belgium with a share of the spoils in a breathless 3-3 draw in the Champions League. The hosts thought they had found a late winner, though a VAR check saved the Catalans from an embarrassing defeat – Barca now face a tricky trip to Celta Vigo on Sunday night.
Head coach Hansi Flick claimed he will continue to adopt his high-press and high-line approach despite the obvious defensive issues this season following Inigo Martinez’s summer departure. Barcelona have managed only three clean sheets in 11 La Liga matches, and none in their last nine outings across all competitions.
With Pedri absent in midfield, Raphina still unavailable in attack, the Blaugrana have struggled for control and lacked the same intensity out of possession. That’s allowed the likes of Club Brugge, Girona, Sevilla, Rayo Vallecano and Levante to have great joy in transitions, often opening up the Barcelona rearguard with ease.
The defending champions have conceded 29 Big Chances in 11 league dates, which should encourage a Celta side that look well-equipped to contribute in what should be another goal-heavy contest. No side in La Liga has been more reliable for Both Teams To Score winners than the Vigo-club, landing the BTTS bounty in 10 of their opening 11 outings.
Celta love to play on the front foot and has enough attacking talent to trouble any defence in the division. Borja Mayoral offers a physical presence up top, Ferran Jutglà provides movement and link play, and the ever-influential Iago Aspas still contributes. Add in Oscar Mingueza’s creativity and the home side can get on the scoresheet here.
Matches between the pair tend to produce plenty of action. The most recent 20 head-to-heads have averaged 3.95 goals per-game with our nominated Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score wager collecting in 10 of the last 12 match-ups, whilst nine of the past 11 at Balaidos have seen both sides score.
Combine the two clubs’ La Liga records this term and BTTS has also been a successful wager in 18 of their collective 22 tussles, suggesting another high-scoring contest could be in the offing.
If you’re looking for entertainment in Europe this season, the Swiss Super League is the place to be. The division is averaging a huge 3.42 goals, with 76% of fixtures going Over 2.5 Goals, 68% landing for BTTS backers, and 48% clearing the Over 3.5 Goals line. Saturday’s clash between struggling pair Winterthur and Grasshoppers should follow suit.
Rock-bottom Winterthur finally picked up their first win of the season last weekend with a 4-2 success over Servette in front of their own supporters. The Rot-Weiss have tended to be at their best at their Schützenwiese base, scoring multiple goals here in four of six fixtures with matches averaging a massive 4.50 goals – five of six seeing Over 3.5 Goals pay.
Our preferred wager – Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS – has banked in five of those six home Winterthur games, with the only exception ending 1–1. But what really defines FCW is the lack of defensive resistance – the hosts have yet to keep a single clean sheet all season.
Grasshoppers aren’t much better, many. The second-from-bottom visitors arrive after being hammered 6-0 and 5-0 in back-to-back away days, telling its own story about their own backline troubles. GCZ had notched in four straight away days before their recent slump, and also put three goals past Young Boys a fortnight ago, highlighting their own threat.
However, Grasshoppers have managed a solitary shutout thus far and with fixtures avergaing 3.67 goals, another shootout looks likely. The Zurich-based club have seen Over 2.5 and BTTS pay in four of six away days meaning the pair have combined to see Over 2.5 Goals in 20/24 collective contests, recording one clean sheet and scoring in 17/24 outnigs.
The underlying metrics back up the eye test. Winterthur games are averaging 3.00 non-penalty xG (npxG), while Grasshoppers sit at 2.90, and between them their matches have produced an enormous 139 Big Chances – over 5.8 per-game – again pointing us in the same direction for goals, and plenty of them, on Saturday evening.
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