Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share his favourite fancies from the weekend’s European action with a pair of plays from Norway and Italy.
Goals Forecast For Florence
Serie A is running hot for goals-based backers in 2021/22.
Italy’s top-flight is averaging a bulbous 3.23 goals-per-game through six rounds of action, with a massive 68% of matches producing Over 2.5 Goals profit.
The peninsula has been Europe’s highest-scoring major division in the past couple of campaigns, too, almost always guaranteeing entertainment.
There are plenty of potential crackers on this weekend’s coupon, yet it’s Sunday’s showdown between Fiorentina and Napoli that catches the eye with Over 2.5 Goals trading at an attractive 1.81.
It’s already proven a profitable formula in nine of the 12 collective league contests featuring these two teams, with the duo plundering 25 goals between them.
This match-up will pit two of Serie A’s most in-form and lethal forwards in opposition, with in-demand Dusan Vlahovic again impressing for Fiorentina in attack, whilst Victor Osimhen has made a superb start to 2021/22 headlining the Napoli forward line.
The presence of both is encouraging enough for goals-based backers to get involved.
However, Fiorentina’s stylistic changes under Vincenzo Italiano this term also suggest an open and attack-minded contest could be on the cards.
La Viola have been producing front-foot football, with their new head coach keen to allow his players to express themselves in possession whilst also implementing a high-pressing system in defence.
The results have been fun to follow. The Florence club have registered four victories from their first six, turned over Atalanta away (2-1), and slipped to 3-1 losses to Roma and Inter Milan. All three were highly watchable affairs, and Fiorentina should fancy their chances of causing Napoli a few issues on Sunday evening.
The Partenopei are yet to be truly tested since Luciano Spaletti’s arrival and are involved in Europa League action on Thursday night, eating into their preparation time for a testing trip to the Stadio Artemio Franchi.
The guests have struck at least twice in all six of their opening Serie A fixtures and should be capable of playing their part in an exciting encounter.
Bodo Can Deliver The Bounty
Bodo/Glimt extended their advantage at the top of the Eliteserien to three points last weekend as the Superlaget saw off the tricky challenge of Valerenga 1-0.
With title rivals Molde dropping points, Kjetil Knutsen’s charges are now in pole position to successfully defend their maiden crown as we enter the final third of the campaign in Norway.
Glimt made history when clinching top honours last term, becoming the first-ever Arctic team to win the Norwegian championship, with Knutsen’s expertise a significant factor in their historic success.
Bodo have built a squad with a much smaller budget than many of their major rivals yet continue to churn out hugely impressive displays.
Following a series of big-name off-season departures, it was perhaps understandable to see Bodo’s high standards waver this season.
However, the Superlaget are finding top form again with five victories from their most recent six league showdowns, as well as an eight-game unbeaten streak that dates back to June.
Glimt have proven to be as ruthless as ever when taking on the league’s lesser lights too.
The hosts have won all five match-ups with teams from the bottom-four positions, scoring 14 goals, and their final-third proficiency should prove the deciding factor when they travel to struggling Stabaek on Sunday.
Stabaek have arrested their worrying slide with back-to-back shutouts and four points from their last two outings, yet the hosts tend to fall short against the division’s elite.
De Blaa have returned W0-D3-L9 against top-10 sides, conceding multiple goals in 11 of those 12 tussles whilst rating rock-bottom across the majority of significant data metrics.
In contrast, Bodo might not be quite as commanding as 2020.
Still, they remain inside the upper echelons for Expected Goals (xG), shots, shots on-target, shots in the box and chance creation rankings, with Glimt generating 1.70 Non-Penalty Expected Goals (npxG) per game and smashing multiple goals in 13 of 20 league encounters.
Therefore, it’s surprising to be allowed to support the guests with a -0.5/1.0 Asian Handicap hurdle at 1.8, knowing we’ll make cash should Glimt earn maximum points.
We’ll pick up a full-stakes pay-out if the away side triumph by two or more goals, a feat Bodo have achieved in eight of their 12 Eliteserien wins this season.
- Over 2.5 Goals in Fiorentina vs Napoli 2 units @ 1.82
- Bodo/Glimt -0.5/1.0 – 3 units @ 1.8
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