Inform Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire is back once again to share his favourite fancies from the weekend with two plays from the Bundesliga and Ligue 1.
SAXONY SHOWDOWN TO FEATURE GOALS GALORE
The Bundesliga is averaging a lofty 3.14 goals per-game in 2022/23, with 60% of fixtures featuring Over 2.5 Goals and 38% of matches beating the Over 3.5 Goals line.
The German top-flight is quite comfortably the highest-scoring division in Europe’s top-five leagues with 57% of encounters also obliging for Both Teams To Score backers.
Turning the aforementioned 60% hit-rate for Over 2.5 Goals into implied odds would give us a blanket price below 4/6 (1.67) in a standard Bundesliga showdown.
It’s quite a crude way of showcasing probabilities and price, but it gives you a decent idea as to why Over 2.5 Goals is an appealing prospect at 1.83 when Wolfsburg take on Bayer Leverkusen on Sunday.
Wolfsburg have tailed off since late January and dropped into mid-table after a promising start to the campaign under Niko Kovac.
Regardless, matches involving the Wolves at their Volkswagen Arena base have tended to be thrilling affairs; 10 (78%) of 13 games here have beaten the Over 2.5 Goals, whilst nine (69%) have even beaten the Over 3.5 Goals barrier.
Kovac’s crew have claimed a solitary clean sheet in Lower Saxony since the World Cup and have shipped multiple goals in eight of 13 match-ups as hosts.
However, Wolfsburg have displayed enough ability to suggest they can also contribute, having notched twice or more themselves in 10 of those ties, including encounters with Bayern Munich and Dortmund.
Only Bayern and Dortmund are delivering a higher goals-per-game figure on home soil than Wolfsburg’s bulbous tally of 3.85 a game, and a similar tally could well be in the offing with Bayer Leverkusen proving pretty rampant in the final-third under Xabi Alonso.
Five straight victories and 11 Bundesliga triumphs in 15 have rocketed Die Werkself to within five points of the top-four, with Leverkusen netting two goals or more in 12 of those 15 fixtures.
Nevertheless, Bayer have boasted only four shutouts in that same sample, leading to 10/15 (67%) winning Over 2.5 Goals plays and nine (60%) successful BTTS wagers.
All of which makes the odds of 1.83 available on Over 2.5 Goals for this weekend’s date a must-back selection, with the market implying just a 55% chance we see three goals or more at the Volkswagen Arena.
BREST TOO BIG TO IGNORE
Nice’s revival under former Middlesbrough midfielder Didier Digard is difficult to ignore.
Les Aiglons dismissed Lucien Favre in early January after a humiliating Coupe de France exit against third-tier team Le Puy, as well as a dismal run of domestic performances, yet the on-field response from the Côte d’Azur club has been exceptional.
Last weekend’s 2-0 home defeat to PSG was Nice’s first reverse in 13 under Digard in Ligue 1 (W6-D6-L1), whilst Les Aiglons have also progressed to the Europa Conference League quarter-finals.
Digard has simplified matters whilst providing newfound belief and confidence for an underachieving group, and it’s had a transformative effect on standards.
But with Nice now seven points shy of European qualification via Ligue 1, the club may well be looking to prioritise their prospects of claiming their first-ever piece of continental silverware.
Digard’s group are worthy third favourites in the outright market and have a presentable tie with Basel either side of Sunday’s trip to relegation-threatened Brest.
So with focus and motivation potentially elsewhere over the coming seven days, Nice do look a little too short around the 2.30 mark this weekend.
After all, Les Aiglons are now winless in five league fixtures and were recently held at rock-bottom Angers in their most recent domestic away day.
Brest can be backed at 1.75 with a +0.5 start, and that holds plenty of appeal.
Les Pirates have moved out of the bottom-four following a reasonable W2-D2-L1 run of results, with their only loss coming narrowly here at home to PSG; in fact, Eric Roy’s outfit have W3-D6-L4 under his tutorship with three of their four defeats arriving by the narrowest of margins.
Last weekend’s performance at Reims was encouraging and came hot on the heels of a 3-1 success against Toulouse, suggesting highly-motivated Brest are finding their range at the right time.
Meeting a Nice side with bigger fish to fry could well work in their favour. I’m therefore happy to back Brest to avoid defeat at their Stade Francis-Le Blé base.
- Over 2.5 Goals in Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen – 1 unit @ 1.83
- Brest +0.5 Asian Handicap in Brest vs Nice – 1 unit @ 1.75
Subscribe to the Matchbook Betting Podcast here
Subscribe to the Matchbook YouTube channel here